Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 032106
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
406 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
STATE OF THE FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE FRONT LEFT
QUADRANT OF THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS AND WESTERN
PANHANDLES. THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1500
J/KG) TO WORK WITH BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK. THIS SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION DISORGANIZED (PULSE TYPE), BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND
GUST CAN`T BE RULED OUT GIVEN A SIGNIFICANT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH COUPLES WITH THE JET STREAK. HEAVY RAINFALL ENTERS
THE FORECAST AS PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO BE INCREASING ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. THESE FACTORS PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE THE
SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING, BUT MODELS HAVE SHOWN THAT THE BEST PWAT VALUES ARE
OUT OF PHASE OF THE BEST FORCING. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MORE LOCALIZE
FLOODING ISSUES RATHER THAT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. FOR NOW WILL
HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THESE FACTORS
SYNC.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE. MODELS SURGE THE DRYLINE EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA, BUT WITH RECENT
RAINFALL THE DRYLINE COULD SETUP FURTHER WEST THAN SHOWN. HAVE
EXTENDED MENTIONED POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN SHOWN IN MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                56  76  57  65  54 /  40  50  80  80  50
BEAVER OK                  58  82  60  67  58 /  40  40  70  80  60
BOISE CITY OK              53  76  54  66  49 /  30  60  70  70  50
BORGER TX                  59  78  59  66  57 /  40  50  80  80  50
BOYS RANCH TX              55  77  58  67  53 /  40  60  80  80  50
CANYON TX                  57  76  57  66  53 /  40  60  80  80  50
CLARENDON TX               58  77  59  66  58 /  20  30  80  80  70
DALHART TX                 53  76  55  67  50 /  40  60  80  70  50
GUYMON OK                  56  80  58  66  53 /  40  60  80  80  50
HEREFORD TX                55  74  57  66  51 /  40  60  80  80  40
LIPSCOMB TX                59  79  60  66  60 /  20  30  60  80  60
PAMPA TX                   56  75  57  64  56 /  30  40  80  80  60
SHAMROCK TX                58  79  60  67  59 /  20  30  70  80  60
WELLINGTON TX              60  80  61  69  61 /  10  30  70  80  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/14





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