Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 172004
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
304 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...

VISIBLE SATELLITE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA. FURTHER WEST MID CLOUDS WERE
PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES BUT WERE
ERODING QUICKLY AND SURFACE WINDS WERE BEGINNING TO VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE AS MIXING STRENGTHENS. THERE ARE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. 1.) FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH DEEP
MIXING BEHIND THE DRYLINE RESULTING IN DRYING AND STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE MET IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR THIS TO HAPPEN WILL
BE BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF CRITICAL/NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY
FURTHER EAST. 2.) THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD NEAR THE
COLORADO NEW MEXICO BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY
TOWARD LOWER 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A DISTINCT
VORT MAX WAS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER WEST CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. LOW CLOUDS AND DOWNSTREAM
CONVECTION HAVE COMPLICATED THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MID TO UPPER 50 DEGREE DEW POINTS
GENERALLY COINCIDENT WITH WERE LOW CLOUDS LINGER. 12Z KAMA OBSERVED
SOUNDING SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE DRY LAYER ABOVE A VERY SHALLOW
NEAR-SURFACE MOIST LAYER. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID MIXING OUT
OF THE SEEMINGLY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER AS CLOUDS DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AT LEAST HINTS AT THIS.
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES TO BETTER REPRESENT EXPECTED COVERAGE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. IF STORMS DEVELOP...STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THE OTHER SHORT TERM CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR WESTWARD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE AFTER MIXING SUBSIDES THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG COULD FORM LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES ROUGHLY.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...OLDHAM.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

17/05





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