Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231148 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
648 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THIS
MORNING...WITH CIGS AND VSBYS GRADUALLY IMPROVING DURG THE COURSE OF
THE MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER ANY TSTMS WILL
IMPACT A PARTICULAR TERMINAL SITE LATER THIS AFTERNOON..AND THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF TSTMS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT PATCHY FOG SHOWING UP...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. SO FAR HAVE NOT SEEN VISIBILITIES DROP BELOW 2
MILES...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITORING FOR ANY DENSE FOG THAT FORMS
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. INFLUX OF MOISTURE HAS BROUGHT WITH IT AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL PERSIST INTO MID-MORNING AND GRADUALLY START
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE TRIES TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES WHERE CLOUD COVER IS A LITTLE THICKER.

HIGHEST THREAT AREAS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE PANHANDLES. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG AREAS OF
THICKER CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS THE REMAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES...AND A FEW STORMS
COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOUD COVER COULD ALSO
BECOME AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION THOUGH.

ON FRIDAY...A SHIFT TO A DRIER PATTERN BEGINS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL CROSS THE REGION...AND GUIDANCE IS VARYING SOME
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THE RESULTING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES.
HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW AS THINK THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN EAST OF THE PANHANDLES...AND ONLY THOSE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
WOULD SEEM TO HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING ANY PRECIP. WARM DOWNSLOPE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
80S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A
LITTLE MORE PLEASANT AS THE GRADIENT WINDS RELAX SOME. AN UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT...BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
THEREFORE...VALUES WILL BE MARGINAL AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT YET...BUT IS SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE WATCHING THROUGH THE MORNING. ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES...AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...WITH
RECENT RAINFALL...LOW ERC VALUES...AND RESULTANT GREEN UP OF
FUELS...SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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