Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 042258
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
558 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE PANHANDLES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERS AFTER
03Z TO 05Z TUESDAY AND MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 14Z TO 18Z TUESDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR TO LIFR AFTER 05Z TO 10Z
TUESDAY...AND THEN BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFTER 16Z TO 20Z TUESDAY.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 16Z TO 20Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND THIS WILL BE MEETING UP WITH A SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE TO GIVE THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
BE LOWER THAN TODAY DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A CHANCE OF SOME DRY AIR BEING BROUGHT INTO THE SOUTHWEST
TX PANHANDLE. IF THIS HAPPENS...CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASED AND MORE
DAYTIME HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE THUS INCREASING MAX TEMPS. THIS EXTRA
HEATING WILL ALSO ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE INSTEAD OF JUST BEING
A CONSISTENT RAIN EVENT. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE IN A SLIGHT RISK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBLE PWAT
VALUES OF 1.15 INCHES TUESDAY...WHICH IS 2 PLUS STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE AREA WILL BE WIDESPREAD 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS THAT SEE MORE CONVECTIVE STORMS. SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A LONG
DURATION RAIN EVENT THAN QUICK PICKUP...WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON A FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS POINT. BY WEDNESDAY SKIES CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE WEST AND
DAYTIME TEMPS COME BACK UP TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. THE MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE DRY LINE IS
GOING TO SET UP THOUGH. THE GFS IS PUSHING THE DRY LINE AS FAR EAST
AS OKLAHOMA. THE NAM KEEPS IT MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF OUR CWA AND THE
ECMWF BLENDS THE TWO OPTIONS. IF THE DRY LINE SETS UP IN OUR
AREA...WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE STORMS FORM AND SOME MAY BE SEVERE.

MB

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF INTO
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, THE PANHANDLES WILL RESIDE IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES/WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COULD
HELP CONVECTION TO INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY THE INFLUENCE OF THE EARLY WEEK PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH TO ALLOW THE DRYLINE TO SURGE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
SHOULD IT DIMINISH QUICKER THAN EXPECTED THEN WE COULD MISS OUT ON
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALL TOGETHER.

OVER THE WEEKEND ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH THE
PANHANDLES BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVEN`T COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH
RESPECT TO THE DRYSLOT OF THIS SYSTEM. THE ECMWF IS MORE OPTIMISTIC
IN RESPECT TO POP CHANCES WHERE AS THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE DRY. THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WITH TIME.

14

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/02




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