Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 300858
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
358 AM CDT THU APR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A RETREATING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE MID 40S. FULL SUNSHINE TODAY AND
A WEAK LEE SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE REGION. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 40S TO THE
LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...
ALTHOUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST /FRIDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/ STARTS OUT DRY...IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION TO A WET
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WEEKEND WHERE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA. NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE CAN
ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MAKING FOR A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN PRECIP CHANCES.

THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL
BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A STRONGER UPPER DISTURBANCE
CAN GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
ANY RAINFALL TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA AS DRY AIR WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE SURFACE.

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS
INTO NEW MEXICO WHILE SURFACE WINDS BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. IN
ADDITION A PACIFIC UPPER LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL HEAD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY. THUS UPPER
LIFT PROVIDED BY THIS SYSTEM IN TANDEM WITH THE INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY MONDAY.
BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...WHICH RAISES
CONCERNS FOR A PERIOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.
ADEQUATE SHEER AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ALSO SUPPORT THIS CONCERN. THIS
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE
DRYLINE TO MIX EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. THUS EXPECT PRECIP TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TOWARD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM CAN BRING YET
MORE RAINFALL TO THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER MUCH
CAN CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN BUT STILL THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING
OVER FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

CLK



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  47  81  53  85 /   0   0   0  10   0
BEAVER OK                  81  48  82  55  86 /   0   5   5  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              80  47  79  50  83 /   0   5   5  20   5
BORGER TX                  83  51  82  56  87 /   0   0   5  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              82  47  83  52  87 /   0   0   5  10   5
CANYON TX                  78  46  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   5   0
CLARENDON TX               78  47  81  54  84 /   0   0   0   5   0
DALHART TX                 81  45  81  49  86 /   0   5   5  10   5
GUYMON OK                  81  48  81  54  86 /   0   5   5  20   5
HEREFORD TX                79  46  82  52  86 /   0   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                80  50  81  56  84 /   0   5   5  10   0
PAMPA TX                   77  46  78  53  83 /   0   0   0  10   0
SHAMROCK TX                78  48  79  54  83 /   0   0   0  10   0
WELLINGTON TX              80  50  81  55  84 /   0   0   0   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/05




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