Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 152116
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
416 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)

NO SURPRISE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST IS GOING TO BE CENTERED AROUND
THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
UTAH/COLORADO STATE LINES.

THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO HELP CONVECTION
DEVELOP. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS ALREADY
BEGUN ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. RUC FORECAST MUCAPE
SHOWS THAT CONVECTION WILL HAVE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF
500-100 J/KG MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES
WHERE AS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES ARE FORECAST FOR
1000-1500 J/KG. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ROUGHLY 30KT.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL LING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING HOWEVER
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY 11 PM.

THURSDAY...A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXIST
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND A VORT LOBE ROUNDING
THE LOW WILL GIVE A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT TO THE PATTERN. THE TIMING
OF THIS LOBE IS IN THE GENERAL TIMING OF PEAK HEATING WILL WILL GIVE
AMPLE SUPPORT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT AN EARLIER CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES BETWEEN 10AM AND NOON TOMORROW WHILE HOLDING OFF
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SHOW THAT
STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL HAVE 1000-2000
J/KG TO WORK WITH AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES RANGE FROM 30KT TO
35KT. HODOGRAPHS SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
CONGEALING INTO A LINEAR STRUCTURE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. PWATS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.95 TO 1.05 INCHES
WHICH IS BETWEEN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL +2SD AND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR
MID APRIL. THIS AMPLE MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO BEING POSSIBLE. CONVECTION WILL PUSH OFF INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA ROUGHLY AROUND 11 PM CDT.

14

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING EAST. SINCE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
SITUATED SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE EAST COMPARED TO ITS LOCATION ON
THURSDAY...AREA OF CONCERN FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY. IN FACT...THE GFS SOLUTION
IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...SO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENDS UP
BEING DRY SLOTTED FRIDAY MAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES EVEN WARMER. SO
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CURRENTLY FOR FRIDAY`S CHANCES FOR
STORMS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY COULD EASILY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT.

BY SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING.
AS THIS UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES WELL TO THE EAST...NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS ALOFT ON SUNDAY. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HOLD STRONG SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH TRANSLATES TO OFF AND ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...QUITE AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR MID APRIL OVER THE
PANHANDLES. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES DO NOT LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS
SET UP...IN FACT THINK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY BE HARD TO COME BY AS
WELL. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CORRESPOND WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
RIDING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...SO AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE BOTH
MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING SHAPE UP TO HAVE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES.

KH


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                50  72  47  71  43 /  40  50  50  20  30
BEAVER OK                  51  73  52  73  47 /  40  60  70  40  60
BOISE CITY OK              42  66  42  67  40 /  30  40  50  30  30
BORGER TX                  52  73  52  73  47 /  40  50  50  30  30
BOYS RANCH TX              47  75  46  72  42 /  30  40  40  20  20
CANYON TX                  49  73  46  72  42 /  40  50  40  20  20
CLARENDON TX               52  73  52  73  49 /  30  60  60  30  40
DALHART TX                 44  69  42  69  40 /  30  40  40  20  20
GUYMON OK                  48  70  49  71  44 /  30  50  50  30  40
HEREFORD TX                49  74  45  71  41 /  40  40  30  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                54  74  52  72  49 /  40  60  70  40  60
PAMPA TX                   50  71  49  71  46 /  40  60  60  30  40
SHAMROCK TX                54  74  53  74  50 /  30  60  70  40  50
WELLINGTON TX              55  75  52  76  51 /  30  60  60  40  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...HARTLEY.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$





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