Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 241035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N15W TO 5N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE INLAND OVER SW
AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 1W-4W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 9W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SE CONUS THEN N-NW TO OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NW GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE NW
ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FAR W ATLC
ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE AND INTO THE N GULF OF MEXICO
ALONG 30N THEN INLAND AGAIN OVER SE LOUISIANA. HEAVY SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND ARE SPREADING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH FOG INTO THE GULF WATERS N OF
25N W OF 94W. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR
27N85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE ABOVE COLD FRONT WILL OVER THE NE GULF
TODAY. A WEAK ATLC RIDGE WILL EXTEND W OVER THE GULF TONIGHT
THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH NW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND ARE NO
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN DOMINICA TO SAINT LUCIA LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT
OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL DIMINISH SAT
MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME SW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND S HAITI S OF 19N W OF 71W. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE N.
THIS WILL INCREASE SHOWERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND INTO THE NW ATLC
DIPS S OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA THEN INLAND
OVER SE GEORGIA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND FRONT IS N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 31N BETWEEN 66W-76W AND N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM
27N-30N BETWEEN 76W-80W. A REMNANT COLD FRONT IS IN THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 32N39W 31N43W TO 30N46W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 30N52W 27N59W TO 25N68W THEN DISSIPATES
ALONG 25N72W TO 25N75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E
ATLC E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN SW ALONG 21N27W TO 18N40W.
THIS IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS NEAR 32N17W
ALONG 28N22W TO 25N31W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT WITH A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 23N29W AND
27N34W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CAPE
CANAVERAL EARLY SAT AND REMAIN N OF 23N REACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLC TO N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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