Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 180602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W SW
TO 04N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04S TO 04N BETWEEN 17W AND 41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 MB LOW PREVAILS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS FROM WHICH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA NW TO THE PANHANDLE...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE
TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
EXTENDING INLAND ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SOUTHERN
TEXAS...EXTENDING WITHIN 60 NM OFF THE COAST. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...FOG IS BEING REPORTED N OF 26N W OF 90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE REMAINING WESTERN GULF S OF 26N
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. MOSTLY SE TO E WIND FLOW OF 15 KT ARE
W OF 90W WHILE LIGHTER VARIABLE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE W OF
90W. SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC OCEAN EXTENDS TO THE
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WHILE LOWER PRESSURE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE S OF
15N. A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA...THUS
RESULTING IN TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W AND
78W...BEING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
ELSEWHERE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS OVER THE HALF WESTERN BASIN WHILE A TROUGH COVER THE
REMAINDER BASIN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG
WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NW AND NE
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...WESTERN
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ON PANAMA
COASTAL WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. NOT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SW N ATLC S
ACROSS THE ISLAND TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA. SHALLOW MOISTURE ALONG
WITH LIFTING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT CLOUDINESS
WITH POSSIBLE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY FOCUSED
OVER HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHEN A DRY AIRMASS ENTERS THE
ISLAND PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ENTERING THE AREA OF DISCUSSION FROM
30N33W SW TO 26N45W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG 27N61W TO 27N66W TO A 1014 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA ADJACENT
WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT THEN CONTINUES SW TO CAPE
CANAVERAL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT. SURFACE
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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