Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 311007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 06N11W TO 01S28W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S39W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERS OF 1023 MB OVER
THE E GULF NEAR 27N84W AND 1022 MB OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 27N74W.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W OF THE HIGH ACROSS THE GULF BASIN. E TO
SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE S AND W GULF.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE N AND NE GULF. DRY
AIR AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF THIS MORNING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DISSIPATED SHEAR LINE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING
SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W AND 82W...INCLUDING THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
OVER THE CARIBBEAN IN TRADE WIND MOISTURE E OF 70W INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DISSIPATED SHEAR LINE BOUNDARY
THROUGH TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CORNER
OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AMPLE MOISTURE AND THE NEARBY FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE
ISLAND DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS CENTERS OF 1023 MB OVER
THE E GULF NEAR 27N84W AND 1022 MB OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 27N74W.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N47W AND
EXTENDS TO 23N60W TO 21N68W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO HAITI NEAR 20N73W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 70 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N36W TO 24N39W. THIS TROUGH WAS A
REFLECTION OF A UPPER LOW NEAR 29N30W THAT IS NOW BEING ABSORBED
INTO A LARGER UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION LATER TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
24N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT WILL THEN
DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT OFF THE E US COAST WILL MOVE
INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OFF THE N FL COAST TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


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