Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 172339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 7N12W TO
5N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 2N20W TO 1N30W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-5S BETWEEN 14W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE
FLORIDA AT 28N81W TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 29N83W TO N OF
PENSACOLA FLORIDA AT 31N86W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA N OF 27N E OF 88W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA S OF
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER E TEXAS E OF 100W AND N OF 28N TO INCLUDE THE
FAR NW GULF COAST. THE GOES-R IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
FOG OR STRATUS CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF FROM 20N-29N W OF 93W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE SE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER COLORADO NEAR 39N106W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER E TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST
OF THE GULF N OF 22N WHILE SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NE
GULF. ALSO EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO MOVE OVER THE NW
GULF AND LOUISIANA WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA E OF 82W...AND OVER CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NW
VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S GUATEMALA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
...AND JAMAICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AT 32N78W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N81W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N W OF 67W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N36W TO 26N50W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N50W TO 27N60W TO 31N72W TO
THE LOW AT 32N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT E OF 67W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N21W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-80W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-
40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N27W
TO 26N37W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OFF GEORGIA TO
MOVE TO 33N73W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO THE SE
FLORIDA COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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