Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 301033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 11N16W ALONG 7N15W TO 5N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 3N19W 3N33W TO ACROSS THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 9W-23W...WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29W-37W...FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 38W-45W...AND FROM
3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN TURNS W TO OVER
TEXAS. THE REMNANT COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND NAPLES ALONG 24N84W THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR CANCUN MEXICO THEN
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE
FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA
BEACH INTO THE GULF BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND TAMPA BAY TO 28N86W.
DENSE LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF A LINE
FROM TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS
BUILDING IN OVER THE W GULF WITH A 1019 MB HIGH JUST INLAND OVER
NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. THE LATEST NESDIS HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM
FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUES TO SHOW SMOKE ACROSS THE SE GULF. THE
FRONT WILL WILL MOVE SE OF THE AREA LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE W TODAY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ANCHORED OVER
CENTRAL PANAMA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR CANCUN MEXICO THEN INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER CUBA NEAR
HAVANA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N85W TO OVER HONDURAS NEAR
16N87W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS W OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. BROKEN HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W LEAVING THE E CARIBBEAN WITH REMARKABLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS
TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
BROKEN HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS COVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THIS
MORNING BUT NO RAIN IS INDICATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH THE DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
32N44W ALONG 28N57W 28N63W TO 29N69W WHERE IT BECOMES WARM FRONT
TO A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 31N76W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH.
A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE 1003 MB LOW
ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF
28N BETWEEN 40W-68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-27N W OF 73W TO OVER FLORIDA AND INTO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1023 MB
HIGH N OF MADIERA AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 32N22W
ALONG 25N35W TO 19N67W. THE W ATLC LOW WILL MOVE N OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N71W TO
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND FROM NEAR 32N57W ALONG 27N65W TO
CENTRAL CUBA FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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