Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 10N14W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
01N29W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N AND E OF 16W. PATCHES OF
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-26W
AND 35W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC EXTENDS ACROSS S
MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REACHING THE SW GULF. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF ANALYZED AS A WEAKENING
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N97W TO 26N90W AND AS A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM THAT POINT TO 27N82W. AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 23N-26N AND W OF 95W...AND FROM 26N-28N AND
E OF 84W. A WEAK 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NE GULF CENTERED NEAR 30N89W.
TO THE S OF THE FRONTS...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE
GULF AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 25N89W TO 25N80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN
81W-83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SE COAST OF
MEXICO REACHING THE SW GULF WATERS FROM 19N-21N AND W OF 92W.
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A LIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS DEVELOPING N 27N AND E OF 90W WHILE A LIGHT
TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS THE BASIN
UNTIL DISSIPATION. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILD IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO ALSO REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH IS DEVELOPING S OF CUBA NEAR 18N80W EXTENDING ITS
RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS E CUBA AND THE SW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ITS AXIS FROM
13N73W TO 19N62W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WHOLE BASIN. AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA S OF
15N BETWEEN 68W-74W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A
SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
27N80W TO 31N69W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 25N80W TO 27N74W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 71W-80W. TO
THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 28N56W TO 28N39W
AND AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 31N32W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER.
THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE
LOCATED NEAR 23N43W AND THE OTHER NEAR 32N17W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO
CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.