Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 291757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
03N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N13W TO 02N16W TO 03N32W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 21W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA WITH THE PARENT MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOTED WEST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SW TO A BASE OVER SW TEXAS AND NW
MEXICO. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA FOCUSED
ON A PRIMARY 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N84W. A STATIONARY
FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION NEAR 29N81W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER S-SW TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N94W. A SECONDARY 1005
MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SE GULF NEAR 26N84W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED S-SW TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
20N88W. WHILE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM
THE EAST PACIFIC REGION FEEDS NE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
GULF...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 79W-85W. TO THE SE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 87W-94W. OTHERWISE...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NW AND
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AS
A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ITSELF ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
RIVER VALLEY. BY EARLY THURSDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE SW
NORTH ATLC REGION...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM
THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE NORTHERLIES ANTICIPATED THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 16N77W.
THE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY E OF 80W. W OF 80W...ON THE
NW PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED TO THE NORTH ACROSS
THE SE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...ASIDE FROM
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE MAIN
MARINE IMPACT IS FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG BREEZE CONDITIONS
GENERALLY E OF 75W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. FURTHERMORE...AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY THURSDAY...STALL...AND BECOME
DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN NORTH ATLC NEAR 41N58W THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. THE PRIMARY FRONT
FARTHEST EAST ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W SW TO
26N65W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY W-NW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 29N81W. THIS STATIONARY FRONT FEEDS INTO A 1006 MB LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE INTO
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N55W W-SW TO 29N68W. WHILE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N-32N
BETWEEN 36W-66W...MOST OF THE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 24N-32N W OF 66W...INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FURTHER
AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL INTRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY N OF 27N IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N15W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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