Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 142312
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
04N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL
NEAR 03S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-04S
BETWEEN 32W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE NW GULF ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N93W TO 25N98W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 24N AND W OF 94W. A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N90W TO 24N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-93W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO AND PUSHING
OFFSHORE AFFECTING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS W OF 97W BETWEEN 19N-
24N. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE NW
ATLANTIC NEAR 40N51W EXTENDS ITS AXIS SW REACHING THE E GULF
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER MAINLY E OF 86W. LIGHT TO GENTLE SE FLOW
IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT
W OF THE COLD FRONT...W OF 94W...WHERE A GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NW GULF.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE
TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES GENERATING ISOLATED
QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS THAT PREVAIL ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE
OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER
THE S CARIBBEAN WATERS MAINLY N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN
73W-77W. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADES SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC
TO THE SW SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED OVER OUR AREA AS
A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N47W TO A WEAK 1021 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN
THE PROXIMITY OF THESE FEATURES MAINLY N OF 24N BETWEEN 43W-59W.
TO THE E...A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS ARE SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. THE FIRST ONE IS CENTERED NEAR
29N44W WHILE THE SECOND ONE IS NEAR 32N32W. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS IN BETWEEN THE HIGHS EXTENDING FROM 28N39W TO 25N36W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE W PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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