Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 282324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
05N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N16W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 23W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S OKLAHOMA SUPPORTS A
BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOCUSED ON
A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 27N91W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THIS LOW REACHING 24N92W TO 22N96W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXTENDING N FROM THIS LOW REACHING THE
LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO A
FEATURE FROM THIS LOW...EXTENDING E REACHING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 27N82W. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE PREVAILS E
OF 89W SUPPORTING AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 85W-89W AND E OF 82W BETWEEN 23N-
25N. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N88W TO 21N92W WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT. CURRENT AGRICULTURAL
FIRES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SOURCES OF SMOKE ACROSS
THE SW GULF...MAINLY S OF 24N. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW FLOW
PREVAILS N OF 25N WHILE A SLIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA S OF 25N. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
THE LOW. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SMOKE IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE SW GULF
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
TRANSPORTING SAHARAN DUST INTO THE BASIN. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE
IS ALSO AN AREA OF SMOKE OBSERVED IN LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 84W ORIGINATED BY THE
AGRICULTURAL FIRES BURNING ACROSS HONDURAS. GENTLE SE TRADES ARE
PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF 12N WHERE A SLIGHT FLOW
IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN IN 48 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. THE SMOKE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND.
HAZY SKIES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE LOW CENTERED N OF OUR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY EXTENDS
ITS FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC ANALYZED AND A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N80W TO 26N73W AND AS A COLD FRONT FROM
THAT POINT TO 31N55W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 66W-80W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM
25N79W TO 23N78W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG IT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED 34N20W. LOOKING AHEAD OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC
WITH ITS COLD FRONT ENHANCING CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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