Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 012315
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N22W TO 02N33W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 35W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W AND
CENTRAL GULF CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 29N96W. WITH
THIS...FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED ACROSS THESE AREAS. AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE GULF FROM 29N90W TO 29N83W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA MAINLY W OF 89W WHILE A
LIGHT TO GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT N OF 29N.
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND E GULF WATERS
WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 22N79W TO
16N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 79W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING SW REACHING THE AREA THAT
PAIRED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 16N62W SUPPORT
DRY/STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGHER PRESSURES OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
LOWER PRESSURES OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS ENOUGH TO KEEP A GENTLE TO
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY E
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW IS OBSERVED IN
SCATEROMETER DATA W OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO BEGIN WEAKENING THEN
DISSIPATE. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE W
CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1003 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N73W EXTENDS ITS COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N81W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE
SE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N81W TO 29N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT
PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N78W TO 28N63W.
FROM THIS POINT...THE STATIONARY FRONT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD
FRONT CONNECTING TO A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N57W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THESE BOUNDARIES FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 60W-67W. OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...A STATIONARY 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR 23N40W AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING THE E ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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