Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 041041
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W TO
04N15W TO 02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N20W TO 02N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 11W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 11W-17W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N
BETWEEN 39W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N89W TO OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N89W TO 30N89W. WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE UNDERNEATH THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...NW FLOW CONTINUES TO LIMIT OVERALL
CONVECTION...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 85W-89W. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N75W SW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NOTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF
THIS MORNING. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N85W TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 22N82W TO
16N86W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF AMPLE UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 17N-23N
BETWEEN 74W-85W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS AS WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT E OF 73W. ONE
EXCEPTION IS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 11N
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. LOOKING AHEAD...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY TUESDAY WITH FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES EXPANDING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

...HISPANIOLA...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLAND AND ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA...THESE BOUNDARIES ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N W OF 73W THIS
MORNING. IT IS LIKELY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER CUBA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
REGION ENHANCING THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CUBA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 40N49W WITH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR
31N65W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
39N48W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION
AREA NEAR 32N50W WHICH QUICKLY BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 31N53W
AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 23N69W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER W OF
65W...MOISTURE INCREASES ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND NW
CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH REMAIN FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 65W-81W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS NEAR 34N75W. FARTHER EAST...THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS ALSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N46W. FINALLY...
ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 40N16W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM 32N15W SW TO 27N25W TO 25N35W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES
DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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