Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 050546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO
07N14W TO 02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 22W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 13W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE S-SE OVER WESTERN CUBA TO A BASE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN
SEA. WEST OF THE AXIS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS PROVIDING
FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS
EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED
FROM 30N93W TO 25N91W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING HOLDS ACROSS BASIN PROVIDING MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE
WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CYCLOGENESIS ANTICIPATED IN
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WEDNESDAY. THE GULF HOWEVER IS EXPECTED
TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH E-SE WINDS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOMEWHAT THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. WHILE THE TROUGHING
LACKS A SURFACE FRONT...SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGHING IS REFLECTED AT
THE SURFACE WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N84W TO THE CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N85W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...HOWEVER STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE THE
PRIMARY INGREDIENT GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF
17N BETWEEN 76W-86W. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO OCCUR
ACROSS CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA...AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND BAHAMAS. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY...FLASH FLOODING AND A
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS CUBA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A THREAT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF
72W IS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH OVERALL STABLE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES E OF 78W DUE TO A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THESE
TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR REMAINS ALOFT OVER THE REGION
PROMOTING THE OVERALL FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE N-NW ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC AND MOVES GENERALLY NORTH AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC W OF 65W THIS EVENING. WHILE NO SPECIFIC SURFACE
FEATURE IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 20N-30N W OF 70W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
NW BAHAMAS AND MOVE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FARTHER EAST...A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF 38N39W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N41W SW TO 28N50W TO
25N61W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 25N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND FROM 31N-35N
BETWEEN 25W-41W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N51W. FINALLY...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST EASTERN ATLC FROM 32N09W SW TO
25N20W TO 23N31W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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