Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 162357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
1N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 1S30W TO 1S40W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 1S-3S BETWEEN 1W-8W...FROM 2N-2S BETWEEN 8W-24W...AND
FROM 1S-5S BETWEEN 30W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT
28N81W TO N OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO N OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
AT 31N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
FRONT. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COASTS OF SW LOUISIANA AND SE TEXAS N OF 28N. 10-15 KT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE S OF FRONT AND OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N WHILE
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W...AND OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA
...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1018 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AT 31N78W. A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS S TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AT 28N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT
IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N53W TO 29N60W
TO 29N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 29N70W TO THE LOW
AT 31N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
COLD FRONT. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N26W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-75W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE TO
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 31N36W TO 26N43W TO 29N70W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE LOW OFF GEORGIA TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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