Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 231736
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 08N13W TO 04N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 01N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN SPLITS THE ITCZ AND
EXTENDS FROM 04N27W TO 01S27W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES S OF THE
EQUATOR TO THE N COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER
SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC AND CENTRAL
FL AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF NEAR 27N83W TO 29N90W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN GULF
IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT
COVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. HOWEVER...WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL
BE GUSTY IN THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...A CONVECTION FREE SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 23N92W TO 19N93W. OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EASTERN GULF THROUGH FRIDAY IN A MOIST AIRMASS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THIS IS INHIBITING
ANY DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT
COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...WITH LIGHTER WINDS BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL PASS ACROSS THE
ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY AS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

LOW PRESSURE OUTSIDE OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N58W TO 26N68W TO CENTRAL FL NEAR 27N80W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N58W TO 27N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 47W AND
56W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN US COAST IS PRODUCING
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WHICH SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
25N TO 31N BETWEEN 73W AND THE FL PENINSULA...INCLUDING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS
OF 1021 MB AND 1022 MB ARE LOCATED NEAR 26N38W AND 24N28W...
RESPECTIVELY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT LIES BETWEEN THESE HIGH
CENTERS AND EXTENDS ONTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N20W TO
23N39W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE JUST NORTH
OF OUR OFFSHORE WATERS OFF NORTH FL...TO AROUND 60W. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER FL BUT WILL REMAIN IN TACT
E OF 75W. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THESE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO


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