Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 251738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
05N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 11W-16W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N
BETWEEN 45W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF
BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROGRESSING NORTHEASTWARD OVER LOUISIANA
NEAR 31N92W. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURE IS PRESENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS OR PORTIONS OF COASTAL TEXAS...A
BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE VALUES EXISTS ACROSS THE NW AND
WEST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS IN PLACE OVER
LOUISIANA ARE GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
N OF 28N BETWEEN 91W-97W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA. THIS MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ROUNDING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N80W. SOUTHERLY GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL
INTRODUCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY MONDAY AND QUICKLY LIFT NORTHWARD BY
LATE MONDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH A
SECONDARY FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST EARLY TUESDAY.
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THIS SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N80W WITH THE BASIN E OF 78W UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE ENTIRE
CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY DRY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE CONDITIONS...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER BREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 20N FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO 75W PROVIDING FOR VERY SIMILAR TRANQUIL SYNOPTIC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITHIN DRY AIR ALOFT. THESE OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
20N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COMPLEX MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
NEW ENGLAND NEAR 43N66W WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF 36N58W.
GIVEN THE DYNAMICS IN PLACE...THEY SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W TO 26N73W. THE FRONT
REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AS UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 30N BETWEEN 51W-57W. FURTHERMORE...TO
THE SOUTHEAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 28N51W SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 34N47W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
SW TO 27N52W. THE FRONT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT W-
SW TO 25N60W THEN TO 24N69W. GIVEN A MORE REASONABLE AMOUNT OF
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGER AREA WITHIN 300 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC...AN OCCLUDED 1017 MB
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N28W AND SUPPORTS A TRIPLE POINT 1016 MB
LOW NEAR 32N26W AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ANALYZED SW TO
27N32W...THEN NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 29N37W...AND FINALLY
AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 34N47W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 24N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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