Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 290534
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 6N11W TO 4N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
3N19W 2N28W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 40W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE N
OF 4N TO INLAND OVER THE SW AFRICA BETWEEN 1W-5W...FROM 6N-9N E
OF 15W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA...AND WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 22W-32W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N W OF 85W. AT
THE SURFACE IS A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N88W WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG TO 24N91W TO 19N95W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1006 LOW E ALONG 29N85W THEN ACROSS
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR TAMPA BAY TO WEST PALM BEACH. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IS FROM 26N-28N E OF 85W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA N OF 25N E OF 88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER AN
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST NESDIS
HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
FIRES OVER S MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA CONTINUE TO SPREAD SMOKE
ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL TO SE GULF. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR
MOBILE BAY TONIGHT WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTING N AS A WARM
FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN PASS SE OF THE AREA WED
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
PREVAIL THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDS OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN
E OF 80W. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH
INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND
SPREADING E INTO THE CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF LINE FROM W CUBA NEAR
22N83W ALONG 18N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE BELIZE/
GUATEMALA BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND
SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN
ARE SPREADING DENSE TO MEDIUM SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS
WITH LIGHT SMOKE N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH
EARLY FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
WED NIGHT AND REACH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NW GULF OF HONDURAS THU
EVENING THEN WEAKEN FROM E CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FRI NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY CLEAR TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL
ISOLATED SHOWERS DID POP UP OVER THE N DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
EARLIER THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
THE NORM FOR THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE DRY/
STABLE ATMOSPHERE PREVAILING. HOWEVER ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE SMALL AND SHORT LIVED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE W INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
32N49W ALONG 27N60W TO 25N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS THEN OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S AND E OF THE FRONT WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
FRONT TO 30N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1025 MB HIGH BETWEEN
MADIERA AND AZORES ISLANDS AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH
32N25W ALONG 23N40W TO 20N68W. THE E PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE E ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT
WILL MEANDER ACROSS S/CENTRAL FLORIDA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE W ATLC LATE WED. THIS SECOND
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WED NIGHT
AND FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA THU NIGHT THEN FROM 32N63W TO E
CUBA FRI NIGHT.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



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