Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 271100
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN
56W AND 59W UNTIL 27/1200 UTC TODAY. THIS GALE WARNING IS A
RESULT OF A 991 MB LOW NEAR 36N60W WITH THE GALE FORCE WINDS
DIPPING JUST S INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS FROM THE AFRICA INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W AND EXTENDS ALONG 8N16W TO 5N19W WHERE
THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W 2N36W THE S OF THE EQUATOR AND
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 8W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-4N E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND BETWEEN 14W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
CURRENTLY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES
THE GULF WATERS WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS ADVECTING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER
THE N GULF IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 28N92W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING
SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER S MEXICO
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS ALL OF THE
GULF EXCEPT THE SE SECTOR INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST INLAND ACROSS THE N GULF COAST IS
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE N GULF THIS MORNING AND STALL ALONG 28N
BEFORE RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY TUE AND A SECOND COLD
FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEAR BILOXI MISSISSIPPI TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN PASS SE OF THE
AREA WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W
ATLC. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 16N82W TO 11N76W. EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF PANAMA W OF 81W AND ALL OF COSTA RICA. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. NESDIS LATEST HAZARD MAPPING SYSTEM FIRE AND SMOKE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE FIRES OVER HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN ARE
SPREADING SMOKE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS OFFSHORE OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH WED MORNING.
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY WED. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING.
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COULD CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 70W-81W AND COUPLED WITH
DIFFLUNCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 70W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 28N-30N W OF 76W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA AND FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 62W-70W. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N55W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS 32N56W TO 28N60W WITH SCATTERED TO
HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ENHANCING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF
26N BETWEEN 40W-52W. THE ATLC IS DOMINATED AT THE SURFACE BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC BY A 1022 MB HIGH
NEAR 33N23W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 28N32W ALONG 24N39W 20N55WTO E CUBA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL PASS INTO W ATLC TODAY AND
STRETCH ALONG 26N BY EARLY TUE. THE E PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL
STALL FROM 32N59W ALONG 26N65W TUE NIGHT WHILE THE W PORTION
LIFTS N ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST AS A WARM FRONT IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO CENTRAL ATLC LATE WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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