Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AXNT20 KNHC 030003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W SW
TO 05N20W TO 04N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
01N37W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S TO 06N BETWEEN 09W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE STRAITS AND THE SE
GULF S OF 26N E OF 85W. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF...WITH A 1018
MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF NEAR 28N93W. RIDGING
SUPPORTS NE TO E WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 KT...EXCEPT OVER THE NW
GULF WHERE VARIABLE WINDS OF 5 KT DOMINATE. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR FAVOR FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. SURFACE RIDGING
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC WITH
BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AT THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N
ATLC TO SOUTHERN CUBA NEAR 20N78W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO NE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ENHANCES SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 74W AND
87W...INCLUDING CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR
WEATHER. TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
WHILE NORTHERLY WIND OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE ARE WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SUNDAY
MORNING LEAVING AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL DRIFT
WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...

CLOUDY SKIES ARE ACROSS HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING ACROSS CUBA
AND NW CARIBBEAN. AS THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLAND...THUS
ENHANCING SHOWERS THAT ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC WITH
BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AT THE UPPER LEVELS SUPPORTS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ENTERING THE SW
N ATLC ALONG 30N64W SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO SOUTHERN
CUBA WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO NE NICARAGUA.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE BEING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 23N42W. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL ATLC WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING
WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY TAIL EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE W AND E OF THE FRONT
DURING THIS PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.