Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 051721
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N19W TO 02N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-04N AND E OF 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING S-SE OVER WESTERN CUBA
TO A BASE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS REFLECTED AT
LOW LEVELS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
WITH CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO REACHING
THE SE GULF MAINLY S OF 27N AND E OF 86W. W OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL
AXIS...A NW FLOW PREVAILS SUPPORTING STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE W GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC
INTO THE E GULF PROVIDING A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWARD WITH CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLE IN THE SW ATLANTIC
REGION. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE W ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL CUBA FROM 27N77W TO 29N78W.
THESE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
DEPICTED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE ISLAND OF CUBA
MAINLY N OF 19N AND W OF 78W. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE N THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...FLASH FLOODING AND A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES ACROSS CUBA ARE A THREAT. THIS AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
INTO A LOW PRESSURE AND MOVE N ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. UPPER-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES DOMINATING THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND LOWER
PRESSURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH AMERICA IS SUPPORTING
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN AS NOTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS
CONTINUES N OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-77W. OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS...EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER/MARINE CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES DOMINATING THE ISLAND
PROMOTING FAIR WEATHER. THESE SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE N-NW ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC AND MOVES
N AWAY FROM THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. TO
THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...S-SW UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS
ADVECTING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE SW
ATLANTIC MAINLY W OF 63W. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA CLEARLY
DEPICTS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 27N77W TO 21N78W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-32N
AND W OF 69W. THIS AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A LOW PRESSURE WITHIN
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND MOVE NORTHWARD ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE E...A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 36N28W TO 24N60W. ISOLATED LIGHT TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE BASIN...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA


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