Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 041803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N13W TO 03N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
02N35W TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01N50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO
08N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 17W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03S TO 07N BETWEEN 17W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N88W TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
NEAR 22N85W AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N90W TO 24N89W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTS CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 40 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
WESTERN CUBA AND OVER THE FL STRAITS TO NEAR 23N81W. INTERACTION
OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST
OF CUBA TO 25N FROM THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD TO 85W. ANTICYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT AROUND HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN
US COAST DOMINATES THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AND WEAKEN.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH OUT OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS INTERACTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
EASTERN TIP OF CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST
OF NORTHERN HONDURAS. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE REMNANTS OF
A FORMER STATIONARY FRONT...NOW A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN FROM 20N83W TO 20N85W TO 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 10N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N TO CUBA BETWEEN 77W AND 86W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
11N ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND PACIFIC WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...
DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE ISLAND
TODAY. THIS IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY A
STATIONARY FRONT...EXTENDS FROM THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEAR 24N69W TO 21N75W. THESE SURFACE TROUGHS ARE INTERACTING
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO SUPPORT A LARGE DISORGANIZED AREA OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND CUBA NORTH TO 26N BETWEEN 71W AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. EAST TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 25 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N46W TO 27N57W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N69W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF
THE FRONTS. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1023 MB CENTERED NEAR 26N46W COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC S OF 32S WITH FAIR WEATHER. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC FROM 32N13W TO 24N35W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH SURFACE TROUGHING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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