Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 011743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N22W TO 02N29W TO 02N40W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 28W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SW FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE NW WATERS. MOST OF
THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING IS CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN GEORGIA THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WEST ALONG 30N TO GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. THE FRONT REMAINS DRY WITH DEWPOINTS RELATIVELY
LOWER TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION AS AN OVERALL DRYING TREND PERSISTS...HOWEVER A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NW BAHAMAS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
TO 23N86W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W AND A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED
ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. THE RIDGING
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W AND IS
ANCHORED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N61W. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THIS AREA
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 16N W OF 78W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W SW TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N87W. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM
19N82W TO 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 150 NM
EAST OF COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E
OF 80W REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO STALL AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE EXPECTED FOR THE ISLAND
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE
PREVAILING. MOISTURE COULD INCREASE ON SUNDAY INCREASING THE
PROBABILITY OF A PASSING ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N76W WITH TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SW TO OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N93W.
THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION WITH TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CENTERED
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF 70W. A 1003 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
36N74W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR JACKSONVILLE. THIS FRONT REMAINS DRY WITH ONLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS NOTED W OF THE BOUNDARY. THE OTHER LOW IS 1001 MB
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS THEN TO CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN SEA. BETWEEN THESE TWO COLD FRONTS A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 28N71W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. A STREAM
OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE
NE CARIBBEAN SEA NE TO NEAR 30N65W THEN EAST-NORTHEAST TO BEYOND
34N33W. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23N80W TO
31N60W TO 33N40W TO BEYOND 36N28W. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS
MOISTURE IS LARGELY ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
EASTWARD FROM THE 1001 MB LOW. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC S OF 28N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N16W.
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO 20N50W TO NEAR
HISPANIOLA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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