Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 151744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W SW
TO 02N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 01N32W TO
THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N
TO 07N BETWEEN 11W AND 24W...AND FROM 03S TO 04N BETWEEN 32W AND
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
LOUISIANA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 30N93W TO 22N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N92W TO 21N96W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 93W AND
98W. WINDS NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ARE NORTHERLY BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KT. VARIABLE WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND TROUGH.
EAST OF THESE TWO FEATURES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC HAS AN
AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS PROVIDES S TO SE SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...REMNANT
MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
WILL KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WITH A PERIPHERY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS TRADE WIND FLOW GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT
ACROSS THE BASIN. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE AN AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS
BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND AN AREA WITH WINDS UP TO 25 KT
WITHIN 200 NM OF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS HOWEVER ARE OCCURRING IN
THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND MOISTURE MAINLY N OF 15N. LITTLE CHANGE
IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OFFSHORE THE FL COAST FROM 31N79W TO
28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC SPLITS RIDGING THAT DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN WITH FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N39W TO 29N47W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS TO 29N57W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N44W TO 27N52W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE FRONTS AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER
TROUGH THAT IS VOID OF ANY CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 29N37W TO
23N37W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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