Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 122339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO
02N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
02N18W TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N E OF 22W AND S OF THE EQUATOR AND W
OF 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FEW AREAS OF WEAK MID-LEVEL
ENERGY EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA THAT ARE
GENERATING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF STATES COASTLINE
AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF MAINLY N OF 27N. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WHILE PUSHING NORTHWARD. SLIGHT TO
GENTLE SE FLOW IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN. EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT W OF 80W WHERE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM SW CUBA THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND W JAMAICA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE
SLIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE DEPICTED S
OF 13N BETWEEN 74W-78W AFFECTING THE WATERS N OF COLOMBIA.
EXPECT A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONCE AGAIN OVER
THE ISLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE N ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT
TO 30N75W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN STATES ENDING NEAR 31N86W. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. DIURNAL HEATING AND A FEW UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCES COMING FROM THE GULF ARE ENHANCING CONVECTION
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN CONUS AFFECTING THE W
ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 76W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH NO CONVECTION RELATED
TO THEM. THE FIRST IS FROM 26N67W TO 22N68W WHILE THE SECOND ONE
IS FROM 27N58W TO 22N59W. TO THE NE...A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 28N46W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N36W AND IS EXTENDING ITS FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC. A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM
30N43W TO THE LOW CENTER WHILE A COLD FRONT IS FROM THE LOW TO
31N21W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. A
WEAKENING OF THESE FEATURES IS ALSO EXPECTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA


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