Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 221017
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 22 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 04N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 03N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 39W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N AND E OF 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE EPAC EXTENDS E ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA REACHING THE SW GULF.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF FROM 24N89W TO
18N90W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AT AROUND 50 NM FROM
THE BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A FRONTAL SYSTEM PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N93W TO 26N82W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A 1017 MB SURFACE
HIGH IS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE NE GULF CENTERED NEAR 29N85W. LOOKING S OF THE FRONT...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE GULF AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS FROM 23N84W TO 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 77W-81W. FAIR WEATHER
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS N 27N AND E OF 90W WHILE A LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW
IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
TO CONTINUE WEAKENING ACROSS THE BASIN AND LATER DISSIPATE. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EPAC INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO ALSO REACHES THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH IS DEVELOPING S OF CUBA NEAR 17N80W EXTENDING ITS
RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS E CUBA AND THE SW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ITS AXIS FROM
11N74W TO 18N62W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE LIGHT TO
GENTLE TRADES WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WHOLE BASIN. AN AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS OBSERVED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF COLOMBIA S OF
15N BETWEEN 68W-74W. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT A
SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME ACROSS THE BASIN.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM
26N78W TO 31N67W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS FROM 24N80W TO 25N76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 77W-80W. TO THE
E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 26N57W
TO 27N39W AND AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 31N28W.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH FAIR
WEATHER. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERS...ONE LOCATED NEAR 24N42W AND THE OTHER NEAR 33N16W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W
ATLANTIC TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE W ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA



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