Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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000
FXUS65 KBOU 310850
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO IN A WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AIRMASS WARMS MORE TODAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THERE COULD BE A FEW LOWER 80S IN SPOTS. A LEE
SIDE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS TODAY AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS MAY
CAUSE WINDS TO TURN FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST OVER THE
FRONT RANGE AND EASTERN PLAINS. COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WEST OF THE TROUGH. EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE DRY
AGAIN WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES UNDER 15 PERCENT...WINDS WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGH LIGHTS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AND BRING MORE CLOUDS. LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEP AND COULD SEE A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS WITH JUST
VIRGA. LOWER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY AND WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN TO REACH THE GROUND. WILL NOT HAVE ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA OFF TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNEDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND PUSH SOUTHWARD FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT IN
THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED UPSLOPE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 300-600 J/KG RANGE WILL BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A FACTOR WITH SOME RAINSHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THERE IS DECENT QG ASCENT TO
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH THAT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
JET MAX MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. ON
THE SURFACE THE LOW WILL PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST USHERING IN A
LEE TROUGH FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE HIGH INTERACTING WITH A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHERN NM. THIS WILL AID IN
INCREASING THE SURFACE GRADIENT OVER NE COLORADO AND HELP TO BRING
FAVORABLE EASTERLY TO MORE NE UPSLOPE WINDS TO THE FOOTHILLS AND
PALMER DIVIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE SNOW LEVEL DROPPING TO 6000FT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. KEPT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE PLAINS CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL BE SLUSHY AND WET WITH
MUCH OF IT MELTING UPON CONTACT WITH PREVIOUS WARM TEMPERATURES.
EC AND GFS CURRENTLY SHOW SOME ACCUMULATION OVER THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WOULD MAINLY
OCCUR ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND NORTH OF I-70 COULD SEE AROUND 6 INCHES OR MORE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK OF STORM.

COOLED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE TREND FROM PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
THEN PROGRESSIVELY GETTING COLDER WITH LOWS THURSDAY HOVERING
AROUND FREEZING AND HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE 40S.

FOR FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ON THE PLAINS AND
EASTWARD BRINGING THE MOISTURE AND JET WITH IT. QG WILL TURN
DOWNWARD WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER WESTERN CO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY GETTING INTO THE
UPPER 40S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE REGION INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY SUNDAY.

00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL TOO PRELIMINARY TO MENTION ANY
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 250 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A FEW MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND
LESS THAN 20 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS MAY TURN SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY LATE TUESDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE DENVER
AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR LOOKS TO BE AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...MEIER



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