Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 020050
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
650 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
DENVER FOR THE MOST PART SO HAVE STARTED TO BACK OFF THE POPS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. THE POPS MAY STILL BE
A BIT OVERDONE SINCE THE HRRR HINTS AT SOME ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAINLY TO THE NORTH NEAR FORT
COLLINS AND GREELEY. NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL HAPPEN BUT DO NOT
WANT TO LESSEN THE POPS ANY FURTHER TIL I KNOW FOR SURE. IF A
STRONG ENOUGH OUTFLOW COULD SLIPS INTO DENVER FROM THE NORTH...IT
COULD STILL TRIGGER SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRESENTLY MOVING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND OFF
THE FOOTHILLS OF BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTY. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING. HAIL UP TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH WILL BE
THE MOST COMMON THREAT FROM THE PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION. WIND SHEAR
ALOFT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALERT GAGES HAVE SHOWN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS STAYING LESS THAN A HALF INCH. SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE SOME
STANDING WATER IMMEDIATELY AFTER STORM PASSAGE...BUT NO OTHER
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.

SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR LATER TONIGHT
AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION DIES DOWN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. TOMORROW SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY AS THE FLAT UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS OVER COLORADO AND MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE STATE.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN BE SUFFICIENT TO DE-STABILIZE THE
AIRMASS. ONCE AGAIN THE WIND STRUCTURE WILL BE WEAK...SO ONLY
SCATTERED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MODELS HAVE WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A WEAK UPPER CLOSED LOW TO MOVE INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THE QG FIELDS HAVE WEAK
UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY PROGGED FOR ALL THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL BE PRETTY WEAK
WITH NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERNS SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT WITH UPSLOPE NORTHEASTERLIES ARE PROGGED SUNDAY...WITH
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE-
WISE...SATURDAY EVENING IS FAIRLY DRY. THIS CARRIES INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM AND ECMWF FURTHER INCREASE
MOISTURE...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. THE GFS DOES NOT DO THIS UNTIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A VERY MOIST MONDAY
NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
PROGGED SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THERE IS MUCH MORE
PROGGED. THERE IS QPF NOTED ALL SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING...
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THEN LESS MONDAY OVERNIGHT. THE DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S F SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM LATER
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CAPE BOTH SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN LATE DAY SUNDAY AS WELL...BUT VALUES ARE NOT ABOVE
1000 J/KG EITHER DAY. THERE IS LESS CAPE AROUND FOR LATE DAY
MONDAY WITH NONE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PLAINS. FOR
POPS...MINOR ONES SATURDAY EVENING...NOTHING OVERNIGHT...THEN
MINOR AGAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL GO WITH 30-50%S. FOR TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S
HIGHS ARE 3-5 C COOLER THAN SATURDAY`S. MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-5 C
COOLER AGAIN FROM SUNDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER TROUGHINESS FOR THE CWA ALL
FOUR DAYS. THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE MUCH OF THE TIME WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY. IT WILL BE A WET...UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM MDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON
SATURDAY. WL KEEP VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR A BIT LONGER. STILL SOME
TSTMS NEAR FORT COLLINS AND GREELEY SO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
REDEVELOPMENT IN DENVER DOES EXIST BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE LOW
AT THIS TIME. BARRING SOME SORT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLIPPING IN
FROM THE NORTH...WINDS SHOULD GO TO MORE OF A DRAINAGE PATTERN THE
REST OF THIS EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER


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