Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 271600
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1000 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW CONTINUES TO PUSH BACK SLOWLY WEST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVEL WAS NEAR 7000-7500 FEET ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE...BUT WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO AROUND 7500-8500 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON...AND UP TO 8500-10000 FEET WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. THE SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING ALTHOUGH
SHOULD SEE SHALLOW CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IN AREAS THAT SEE A
FEW PEEKS OF SUNSHINE. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF TRIMMING BACK TEMPS
A BIT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHERE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PERSISTENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND INTO
OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL TURN
NORTHEASTERLY TODAY. THIS WILL PULL IN DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EAST OF I-25. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH THEM WESTWARD DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. SOME WILL MAKE IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS...THOUGH MODELS ARE
JUST SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SHOWERS...THE MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
FOG THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS THIS MORNING DUE
TO THE SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. LOOKING AT THE RADAR AND WEB
CAMERAS...APPEARS THE SHOWERS ARE NOT MAKING INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
STILL EXPECT SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED. UNLESS THINGS
CHANGE...PLAN ON CANCELING THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY BY 6 AM.

THE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL CREATE SOME
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING. FOR THE FRONT
RANGE...EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY...SO LOWERED
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE.

WILL SEE CLEARING SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT COULD BRING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT
TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. WHERE IT DOES CLEAR LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 30S...LOW LYING AREA COULD SEE SOME FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.
FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING AREAS...THOUGH THE
AIRMASS MAY BE MOIST ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE
FREEZING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AT
THIS TIME IS FCST TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AS THE DEEP CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTH SLOWLY TRACKS EAST ACRS
OKLAHOMA ON TUE...MODELS SHOW A NARROW BAND OF DRY...RELATIVELY COOL
MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING BACK OVER NERN CO EARLY ON TUE. CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT BREEZES AND VERY WET SOILS COULD RESULT IN
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG ON THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY. THESE SAME
CONDITIONS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SCATTERED AREAS OF FROST ON THE PLAINS
AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ON THE PALMER
DIVIDE. CLEAR SKIES MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT ON THE
FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. EVEN WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER IN THE DAY...HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE OR 8-12 DEG F WARMER THAN THOSE
ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SKIES CLEAR AGAIN AS THE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE WARMS AND DRIES WITH THE UPPER RIDGE NOSING OVER THE
STATE. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TOGETHER
WITH STG DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/T-STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 10-12 DEGS F WARMER THE AVERAGE FOR THE
DATE.

WARMUP CONTINUES THURSDAY AS THE WARMEST AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE PASSES OVER THE FCST AREA. ITS A REASONABLY GOOD BET THAT
PARTS OF THE PLAINS COULD SEE HIGHS REACHING THE 80 DEG MARK WITH
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BREEZES DOWNSLOPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER
LATE IN THE DAY...MODELS SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIPPING DOWN FROM
WYOMING CAUSING SFC WINDS TO TURN N-NELY ON THE NERN PLAINS. GFS
EVEN HINTS AT THE FORMATION OF SOME WEAK UPRIGHT CONVECTION ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MORE WIND THAN PRECIP FROM THESE
HIGH BASED SHOWERS. THAT SAID...WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-
STORMS ACRS THE NERN CORNER THURSDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE AN INFLUX OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ON WLY WINDS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE TOGETHER
WITH STG SOLAR HEATING MAY ALSO PRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LOOK FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING OVER WYOMING AND NRN COLORADO
DURING THE PERIOD. WEAK LOW-LEVEL NELY/UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE MTNS
ERLY IN THE DAY SHOULD INCREASE BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE AND CAUSE A 5-7
DEG F DIP IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM THE DAY BEFORE. AS THE
SHORTWAVE PASSES BY...MODELS SHOW A DRY LINE OR SFC TROUGH MOVING
AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE AND ACRS THE PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY WHICH
COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR T-STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SEVERE STORM OR TWO ON THE PLAINS.

OVER THE WEEKEND...A SOMEWHAT WEAKER UPPER RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MTN REGION ACCORDING
TO MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. APPEARS AS THOUGH MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AT ALL LEVELS WITH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN LAYER FLOW. LATE
ON SATURDAY MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPING OVER THE
AREA...WITH SHOWERS AND T-STORMS STARTING OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND MOVING OUT ACRS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIP AMOUNTS
LOOK LOW BUT COULD SEE A FEW STORMS ON THE PLAINS APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS. MAY SEE A REPEAT ON SUNDAY WITH PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS SOME 8-12 DEGS F
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET AND AREAS OF
FOG/DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WITH VISIBILITIES 3-4SM WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 18Z-20Z...AND THEN SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STILL EXPECT CEILINGS TO INCREASE TO 3000-4000 FEET TOWARD
00Z...BUT LOCAL CEILINGS DOWN TO 2000 FEET STILL POSSIBLE AT THAT
TIME AS SHALLOW UPSLOPE COMPONENT REMAINS IN PLACE.

CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT TONIGHT...AND IF THEY DO THEN
LOOK FOR RELATIVELY HIGH POTENTIAL OF FOG FORMATION GIVEN LIGHT
AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW. VISIBILITIES 1/4SM OR LESS
WILL BE POSSIBLE 10Z-15Z EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH


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