Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KBOX 210850 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 350 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY STAY FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO JUST CLIP THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION AT 08Z... FOR NOW. NOTING ANOTHER AREA OF MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NY/PA/NJ ON THE IR SATELLITE LOOP...HEADING E IN THE WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TODAY...WHICH WILL FILTER THE SUN SOMEWHAT. LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTH DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. WITH THE PLEASANT WEATHER AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND TO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN TODAY...UPWARDS TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --TONIGHT...FEEL THAT THE MID-HIGH CLOUDS WILL SHIFT NE AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS N OF THE REGION...WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME NE COMPONENT ALONG THE COAST. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING...ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE AT NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S TO NEAR 40...WHICH IS STILL AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...MEANING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. MAY SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP ACROSS SE MA/RI WITH THE NE FLOW. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INCREASE IN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS MAY HELP BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RUN COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ALONG THE COAST.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...BUT SFC RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS SNE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH SUN NIGHT...SO DRY FORECAST. MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN DEVELOPING NE FLOW MAY BRING MORE CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COAST. USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TEMPS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SUN NIGHT WITH MOST CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. WE LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS AS GFS IS TOO FAST BRINGING IN MOISTURE. MODELS STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THEIR HANDLING OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MON AND TUE SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. GFS/GGEM ARE FURTHEST NW AND BRING RAIN TO SNE MON/MON NIGHT. GGEM REALLY HITS THE QPF HARD MON NIGHT. NAM/EC/UK ALL KEEP RAIN TO THE SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE. MAJORITY OF GEFS ENSEMBLES ALSO SOUTH WITH COASTAL LOW AND SUPPORT DRIER SOLUTION SO WE WILL TREND IN THIS DIRECTION AND SCALE BACK THE POPS WITH BEST CHC OF RAIN/SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST MON/MON NIGHT. TUE...HELD ON TO CHC POPS SE COAST BASED ON EC SOLUTION WHICH CONTINUED MOIST NE FLOW WITH OFFSHORE COASTAL LOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN HANDLING THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE MIDWEST. WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHING THE NE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SO CHC SHOWERS THU INTO FRI. BOTH GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND THE EXTENT OF PHASING. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HEAVY PRECIP. && .AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --TODAY...VFR. TONIGHT...VFR. PATCHY FOG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE AT NIGHT IN THE NORMALLY SUSCEPTIBLE VALLEYS. SUNDAY...VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY VFR TO LOCAL MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUN NIGHT...VFR...WITH LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST. MON...MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST WITH CHC RAIN. VFR NORTH OF THE PIKE. TUE...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WED...VFR.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --TODAY...CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT MAINLY FOR SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. OFFSHORE BUOYS STILL REPORTING SWELLS AT 5-6 FT. ONLY KEPT IT GOING FOR THE MORNING FOR NOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THEY VEER TO MORE NW-N LATER TODAY. TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE WATERS. EXPECT N-NE WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. SUNDAY...NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. EXPECT HIGHEST WINDS E AND S OF NANTUCKET. FOR NOW...HAVE FORECASTED SEAS AT 4 FT OR LESS...BUT MAY BUILD WITH THE NE FLOW ON THE OPEN OUTER WATERS. OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SUN NIGHT...DEVELOPING NE FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES BUT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA. MON-TUE...A PERIOD OF SCA E/NE WINDS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH COASTAL WATERS AS COASTAL LOW PASSES OFFSHORE. LOWERED WNAWAVE GUIDANCE DUE TO ITS RELIANCE ON THE GFS...BUT STILL HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7 FT. WED...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS WED AS GRADIENT RELAXES.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-254>256.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KJC/EVT NEAR TERM...EVT SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...KJC AVIATION...KJC/EVT MARINE...KJC/EVT/RLG
