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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KBOX 231528 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1028 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS TODAY WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD LATE TUESDAY...POSSIBLY AS A GALE NOREASTER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. A LARGE GALE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY THEN MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --SHOWERS MOVING UP IN A ZONE ACROSS RI AND EASTERN CT BUT NOT FARTHER EAST. MOST REPORTS SO FAR ARE OF TRACE LEVEL SHOWERS/SPRINKLES BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LIFT GENERATES MORE PRECIP AND THE LOWER AIRMASS MOISTENS. WE HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY A LITTLE EARLIER ALONG THE RI COAST AND AROUND BUZZARDS BAY...AND BLENDED THIS INTO THE ORIGINAL TIMING FOR ONSET. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH FORECAST...A FEW SCATTERED MINOR DIFFERENCES. WINDS ARE A FEW KNOTS STRONGER...THIS UPDATE BUMPS SUSTAINED WINDS INTO THE MID 20S ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS BASED IN PART ON OBSERVATIONS.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE LOCKING IN ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING LOW. APPEARS THE GFS AND RGEM WERE OUTLIERS AS COMPARED TO MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS...SO LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NON-GFS ENSEMBLES WITH A LITTLE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SREF. APPEARS THE LOW WILL PASS SE OF NANTUCKET TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY-CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT...THEN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW... FEEL THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS MAY CLIP THE CAPE AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. MODELS DID NOT HANDLE LOWS FOR TONIGHT WELL AT ALL CONSIDERING THE ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER...SO LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOMEWHAT MILDER READINGS. KEPT TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...AND STILL MAY BE A BIT TOO COLD OVER S NH /MID-UPPER 30S FORECAST FOR NOW/. AS FOR MONDAY...LEANED TOWARD PREVIOUS FORECAST ALONG WITH THE 2M NAM/GFS TEMPS WHICH TEND TO REMOVE THE MOS SEASONAL EFFECTS. WENT WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER-MID 50S. ONLY OTHER PROBLEM COULD BE A BRIEF WIND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS IN CASE THE LOW IS A BIT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS WELL AS MOVES A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODEL UNCERTAINTY TUE NIGHT-THU MORNING LEADS TO A BELOW AVG CONFIDENCE ON FCST DETAILS THIS PERIOD THEN HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR COMBINED GREAT LAKES COASTAL MERGER THU NIGHT OR FRI FOLLOWED BY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A DEVELOPING BLUSTERY WEEKEND. TUE NIGHT-THU...MAINTAINED CONSIDERABLE CONTINUITY WITH THE 4PM SUNDAY KBOX FCST DUE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUTS. OVERALL..LEFTOVER R OR DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT. PROBABLY DRY WED INTO EARLY THU BUT AM UNCERTAIN DUE THE RESULTANT SFC WX BEING DEPENDENT ON SUBTLE BL WIND DIRECTION/ASSOCIATED TERRAIN LIFT. THE 00Z GFS MOS WAS NOT HEAVILY WEIGHTED...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CLEARING AND THE OUTPUT OF THE NAM AND GGEM TEMP FIELDS. LATE THU INTO THE WKND...BLV MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS SOME SORT OF LOW PRES MOVING TO NEW ENGLAND WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT DID NOT FCST IN THE GRIDS OR WRITE INTO THE HWO AS ITS DAY 5. FOR THE COAST THIS COULD BE EITHER OR BOTH A BRIEF ELY GALE FRI FOLLOWED BY A BLUSTERY WKND WITH POCKETS OF WLY GALE FORCE GUSTS. TEMPS WERE MODIFIED AT NIGHT...UPWARD DUE TO EXPECTED MIXING AND THE 00Z/23 GFS MOS. EROSION...CONSTANCY OF ONSHORE FLOW AND LARGE ELY OCEAN SWELLS OF 10 FEET TUE INTO WED AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRI. WE CANT FCST THE EXTENT OF EROSION BUT IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --TODAY...GENERALLY MVFR MIDDAY EXCEPT AN AREA OF HIGHER CIGS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND FOG. TONIGHT...MVFR-IFR CIGS EXPECTED...WITH LOCAL LIFR CIGS POSSIBLE ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. AREAS OF MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG. TUESDAY...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. MAY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CT VALLEY. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. LOW CONFIDENCE. GENERALLY VFR INTERIOR THOUGH WITH A PERIOD OF IFR ST/FOG EARLY WED AND EARLY THU. ALONG THE COAST-ESP CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...GENERALLY MVFR OR IFR CIGS OUTLOOKED. LEFTOVER RAIN/DRIZZLE TUE NIGHT. THU NIGHT AND FRI...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDS IN RAIN WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY E 25 TO 35 KT COAST...POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO W FRI AFTN ALONG WITH IMPROVING CONDS.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --TODAY...E-NE WINDS WITH SUSTAINED VALUES AROUND 25 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE VALUES BETTER. THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH MODEL WAS RUNNING A FOOT OR SO TOO LOW THIS MORNING. BUOY 008 WELL SE OF NANTUCKET UP TO 10 FEET ALREADY AT 09Z AND BUOY 018 UP TO 7 FEET. HAVE INCREASED THE SEAS ON THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH THE LOW PASSING SE OF NANTUCKET LATE TONIGHT...MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL AS NANTUCKET SOUND AND CAPE COD BAY. HAVE PUT UP A GALE WATCH FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. WAVEWATCH HAS ALSO FORECASTED SEAS UP TO 13 FEET ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. OUTLOOK /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... LEFTOVER SCA CONDS TUE EVENING SHIFT TO HAZARDOUS SEAS SCA WED AND THU IN THE OUTER WATERS THEN ANOTHER GALE CONDITION POSSIBLE FRIDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .EQUIPMENT... NWS BOSTON-TAUNTON POINT AND CLICK HAS DELAYS IN UPDATING BY ABOUT 45 MINUTES- A CONTINUING RECENT PROBLEM. TDWR IN THE BOSTON AREA CONTS OTS UFN. 44020...ANY PROBLEM WITH THIS NANTUCKET SOUND BUOY WILL PROBABLY BE UPDATED ON ITS MAINTENANCE LINK BY NDBC LATER TODAY. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ232-254-255. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ232-254>256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ233>235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ230- 236. GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231-250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ231. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ251. GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ANZ256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DRAG/EVT NEAR TERM...WTB SHORT TERM...EVT LONG TERM...DRAG AVIATION...DRAG/EVT/WTB MARINE...DRAG/EVT/WTB EQUIPMENT...DRAG
