Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 010819 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 419 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY BUT CHILLIER WEATHER MOVES THROUGH TODAY...FOLLOWED BY WARMING ON THURSDAY. A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. DRY AND CHILLIER WEATHER FOLLOWS LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING A FEW RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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MSAS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW PRES COLOCATED WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION WELL S OF NANTUCKET THIS MORNING. THIS CONVECTION HAS USURPED MUCH OF THE MOISTURE AND SHIFTED THE BEST LIFT TO THE S OF THE REGION. IN FACT...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE LIGHT RETURNS ON ACK...OBS SUGGEST THIS IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DRY AIR IS GRADUALLY ENTRAINING IN FROM THE N NOW THAT WINDS ARE NNW. ALREADY HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FOR BLACK ICE ACROSS CT WHERE TEMPS HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF SRN RI AND SE MA WHERE LIGHT RAIN COULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT BLACK ICE DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE TODAY...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRES MOVES IN FROM THE W. COLD ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO FULL MIXING...AND H85 TEMPS -6C TO -8C WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL IN SPITE OF THIS. THEREFORE...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S. BREEZY EARLY WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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TONIGHT... DRY WX PREVAILS MOST OF THE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THIS DRY AIR...AND MASS FIELDS SUGGESTING WEAK PRES GRADIENT...AND FEEL WE HAVE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EARLY. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW MID-HIGH CLOUDS SPILL OVER FROM THE W LATE WHICH WILL SLOW THE PROCESS...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS FALL BACK INTO THE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION IN SPITE OF THE INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. TOMORROW... WARM FRONT WILL BE SLIDING MAINLY N OF THE REGION...BUT THE NOSE OF ATTENDANT LLJ AND MID LVL MOISTURE WILL SLIDING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MID LVL MOISTURE AND LIGHT OVERRUNING LIFT TO WORK WITH...IT WILL BE ENTERING A GENERALLY DRY AIRMASS WITH HIGH PRES AND SUBSIDENCE JUST OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DRY POPS. HOWEVER...NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOME DAYTIME SHOWERS ARE NOTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N. OTHERWISE...STRONG SW PRES GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTS 25-35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL MITIGATE E COAST SEA BREEZES BUT LIKELY ENHANCE S COASTAL SEA BREEZES. THEREFORE...WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL SEE HIGH TEMPS SHIFT ABOVE NORMAL IN SPITE OF THE CLOUDS. MAINLY MID 50S.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * MILD THU NIGHT/FRI AND POSSIBLY INTO PART OF SAT * PERIODS OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT INTO SAT AM BUT NOT A TOTAL WASHOUT * MUCH COOLER SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH EVEN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSS. * UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DETAILS... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY... AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A BURST OF INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL LIFT LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AND WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY. PWATS 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL MAY RESULT IN SOME BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHOWERY SO NOT EXPECTING THE ENTIRE PERIOD TO BE A WASHOUT. MAY EVEN SEE A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATER FRI AM INTO THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE MA PIKE...AS DRIER AIR BRIEFLY WORKS INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPS THU NIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 40S...BUT MAY SEE SOME AREAS ALREADY ABOVE 50 BY DAYBREAK FRI WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION. INVERSION WILL KEEP STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE DECK...BUT SOME SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE TRICKY AND WILL DEPEND ON IF WE CAN MUSTER ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...BUT THINK THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE MUCH OF THE AREA BREAKS 60. LOW RISK SOME LOCATIONS REACH BETWEEN 65 AND 70 IF MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS THEN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. FRIDAY NIGHT IN SATURDAY... SECOND AND STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SAGGING TO OUR SOUTH FRI NIGHT AND SAT AM. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TRACK WITH THE GFS TRACKING THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF TRACKS IN THE FURTHEST NORTHWEST INTO INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT TRACK...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A DECENT PERIOD OF RAIN SOMETIME FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM. THERE IS A LOW RISK RAIN COULD END AS A BIT OF WET SNOW SAT AM...MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THIS SCENARIO EVEN SHOWING THE RISK FOR A FEW INCHES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...BUT AGAIN REMAINS THE COLD OUTLIER SO A LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... CHILLIER AIR WORKS BACK INTO THE REGION LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM TRACKING NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SO WOULD JUST EXPECT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER...TRACK VERY UNCERTAIN IN THIS TIME RANGE SO IF IT SHIFTS SOUTH THAT WILL INCREASE OUR CHANCES IN A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN OR EVEN WET SNOW BASED ON COLDER THERMAL PROFILES. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK... FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW. A BATTLE GROUND WILL SETUP WITH VERY COLD AIR TO OUR NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND MUCH MILDER AIR TO OUR SOUTH...AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE 00Z GFS/GGEM HAVE THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR WEST EVENTUALLY PUTTING US ON THE MILD/SHOWERY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF AND EVEN A FEW OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ARE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH RESULTING IN A COLD RAIN AND EVEN SOME ACCUMULATING WET SNOW. WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE ANY SNOW ACROSS ANY OF OUR REGION...PROBABLY SMART TO LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH TEMPS GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. REGARDLESS...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY AND TONIGHT... VFR. MAINLY CLEAR TODAY WITH A FEW MORE MID CLOUDS BY EARLY THU MORNING. N-NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE DAY TODAY DIMINISH TONIGHT. THURSDAY... MAINLY VFR. MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE W. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AM...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH EVEN SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH EVEN A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AM. ALSO...LLWS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 60 TO 70 KNOTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 THOUSAND FEET LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SOMETIME SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT IN A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE. TODAY INTO TONIGHT... HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM THE W WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY...TO ABOUT 25 KT. WIND DRIVEN SEAS OF 5-6 FT POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. THU... WINDS SHIFT TO THE SW AND INCREASE BY THU AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS...BUT MAY REACH 25-30 KT NEAR SHORE. EXPECT GRADUALLY BUILDING SWELL AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI AM WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JET. LOW RISK OF SOME BRIEF MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...BUT GIVEN INVERSION WILL NOT HOIST A GALE WATCH. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. STRONG NORTHWEST SCA WIND GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN BEHIND A COLD FRONT SAT AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. EVEN A PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALE FORCE WIND LATER SAT INTO SAT NIGHT IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN.
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&& .CLIMATE...
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MODEL OUTPUT STATISTIC /MOS/ HAS SWITCHED FROM COOL SEASON TO WARM SEASON EQUATIONS WITH LAST EVENING/S 00Z 4/1 MODEL RUN. EARLY IN THE SPRING SEASON THIS SOMETIMES LENDS ITSELF TO MOS HAVING A WARM TEMP BIAS DURING ANOMALOUS COOL TEMP REGIMES. TOMORROW MAY BE AN EXAMPLE WHEN 925 AND 850 MB TEMPS RUN ABOUT -1 STD DEVIATION COLDER THAN CLIMO.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ231- 251-256. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ235-237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ250. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ254-255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/DOODY NEAR TERM...DOODY SHORT TERM...DOODY LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...FRANK/DOODY MARINE...FRANK/DOODY CLIMATE...

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