Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 060902 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 502 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR WET WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A CLUSTER OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN NY/NORTHEAST PA WILL GENERALLY PASS SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...MAINLY NORTHERN CT JUST A BAND OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MODEL CROSS SECTIONS. GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS AND DRY GROUND WITH LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL...HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE SEA BREEZES WILL HOLD TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... ***COOL TEMPERATURES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUTLYING LOCATIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AFTERNOON*** TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLEST OUTLYING LOCATIONS WITH PERHAPS EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S. MEANWHILE...PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNTOWN BOSTON WILL SEE LOW TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. THURSDAY... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK RECOVER IN COOL EARLY MORNING TEMPS ACROSS THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND 850 TEMPS BETWEEN +10C AND +12C...SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. SEA BREEZES ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST MAY BE OVERCOME BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING EVEN THESE LOCATIONS TO SEE A LATE AFTERNOON SURGE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE WARM...IT WILL BE COMFORTABLE OUTSIDE WITH RELATIVELY LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * SW FLOW WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS * LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH ONSHORE WINDS * INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DISCUSSION AND MODEL PREFERENCES... CONTINUED H5 LONG WAVE BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH EASTERN U.S. RIDGING AND BLOCKING CUTOFF LOW PRES/TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. MAY START TO SEE PATTERN BREAKING DOWN...THOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOWERED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY E...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW. MILD TO WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEWPTS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE WITH THE DEEP ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST WILL BE COOLER WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS AS WELL. WILL ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT TO MID MORNING PERIOD ALONG THE COAST AND...AS DEWPTS INCREASE...ACROSS SUSCEPTIBLE INLAND AREAS BY THIS WEEKEND. MAY START TO SEE A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONT OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS N MA AROUND THE ROUTE 2 AREA. SOME MORE INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS TO WORK IN...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO BUT TOUGH TO DETERMINE PLACEMENT SO LEFT OUT MENTION FOR NOW. NOTING THE 00Z GFS OP RUN TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND THEREFORE MOVING THE FRONT FASTER TOWARD THE REGION THAN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLC/SE U.S. COAST THAT MAY TAKE ON SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OP MODELS APPEAR TO STALL THIS FEATURE...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING PROGRESSION OF THE CUTOFF LOW OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRES/COLD FRONT THAT TRIES TO PUSH THE RIDGE AND COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH BETTER SHOT FOR CONVECTION BUT AGAIN TIMING IS THE ISSUE. NOTED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY TEND TO TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH AT THIS POINT. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THIS WEEKEND... THEN TRANSITIONED TO A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM LATE SUNDAY ONWARD WHICH APPEARED TO GIVE BETTER RESOLUTION OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AS SLOW MOVING FRONT STARTS TO SAG TOWARD THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS AND THEN THEY SHOULD COME TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EAST TO NORTHEAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND SHIFT TO AN EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN FINALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING AS SEA BREEZES COME TO AN END. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXPECT S-SW WINDS. MAY SEE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE TERMINALS DURING OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING PERIODS EACH DAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET WITH GOOD VISIBILITY. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. S-SW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED EACH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY IF NOT INTO SUNDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...WE MAY HAVE TO BE MORE CONCERNED THIS WEEKEND IF IT REMAINS DRY.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FRANK/EVT NEAR TERM...FRANK SHORT TERM...FRANK LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...FRANK/EVT MARINE...FRANK/EVT FIRE WEATHER...FRANK

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