Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 051932 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 332 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015 .SYNOPSIS... DRY WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 137 PM UPDATE... WEAK COLD FRONT WAS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO EXPECTING LIGHT SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT IS DONE. THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER...BUT IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ARRIVE TONIGHT...MAINTAINING QUIET WEATHER. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... A MOISTURE-STARVED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT SURE IF IT WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTHWEST TO RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS ANY PORTION OF OUR REGION. BEST SHOT IS NORTHERN CT...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO PART OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA FOR A SHORT TIME. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY ACROSS OUR REGION. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE. SO ONCE THE SUNSHINE BREAKS OUT...WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES TOWARD CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. WHILE IT WILL BE COLDER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... */ HIGHLIGHTS... - SW-FLOW USHERING ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND - PERHAPS SOME COASTAL ISSUES WITH MARINE STRATUS / FOG - INCREASING RAIN / THUNDER CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK - CONCERN OVER POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES */ DISCUSSION... ENSEMBLES SIGNAL A H5 RIDGING PATTERN THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW-ATLANTIC. ALONG ITS W-PERIPHERY SW-FLOW OF WARM-MOIST AIR MAINTAINS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING COOL FRONT WHICH BASED ON FORECAST CONSENSUS DRAGS INTO S NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEEKEND - EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE-INSTABILITY AXES FOCUS ACROSS THE NE-CONUS GENERATING A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /MOIST-ADIABATIC THRU H7/ ALONG THE FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WOULD LIKELY AID WITH DIURNALLY- FORCED SHOWER-THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONSENSUS H85-3 FLOW IS RATHER WEAK AROUND 25 MPH ALONG WITH CORFIDI VECTOR FLOW EVEN WEAKER. SO WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE AND FORECAST PWATS OF 1.50-1.75 INCHES WONDER WHETHER WE WILL SEE SLOW-MOVING/TRAINING ACTIVITY THAT WARRANTS FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE FUTURE. THE WARM-CLOUD LAYER IS OVER 10 KFT. COULD WE BE SEEING HEAVY-RAIN PROCESSES? LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING SHOULD SEE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY BEFOREHAND OVER THE WEEKEND THAT WOULD PROVIDE A HEADS-UP. WET-WEATHER CHANCES INCREASING BEGINNING SUNDAY AND GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...NO LIKELY POPS JUST YET. AS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS ASPECT AS WELL. SOME INTANGIBLES: WHETHER A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BUCKLE THE SW- FLOW IN ADDITION TO SEA-BREEZES /PENDING IF INTERIOR WINDS ARE LIGHT/...AND FUTURE OUTCOMES OF SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA /AS TO HOW AND IF IT WILL BE CAPTURED IN THE FLOW TOWARDS S NEW ENGLAND/. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT IT MAY SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE COOL FRONT. APPEARS AS IF THE SLOWER FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOULD BE FAVORED. OTHERWISE: WARMER THAN AVERAGE. MAY BE CONTENDING WITH SOME MARINE STRATUS / FOG AT TIMES AS HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR CROSSES OVER THE COOLER WATERS ADVECTED BY THE SW-FLOW. COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME LOCALES AROUND THE 90-DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL LEAD TO LOCAL SEABREEZES LATER TODAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG AND MARINE STRATUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA. THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THOUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. SW-FLOW. BREEZY AT TIMES. MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH IFR MARINE STRATUS / FOG ALONG THE S/SE-SHORELINE TERMINALS DURING OVERNIGHT - MORNING PERIODS. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA TOWARDS SUNDAY. POSSIBLE TSRA BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. OUTLOOK...THURSDAY THOUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL-CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EXPECT BREEZY SW-FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF WHICH MARINE STRATUS / FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE S/SE-SHORE- LINE DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING PERIODS. DRY FORECAST OVERALL WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY IF NOT INTO SUNDAY/MONDAY. WHILE WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL PROBABLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...WE MAY HAVE TO BE MORE CONCERNED BY SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A BIT MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE WIND GUSTS. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL NEAR TERM...BELK SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...SIPPRELL AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL FIRE WEATHER...WFO BOX STAFF

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