Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 012028 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 428 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH WILL BRING MILD TO WARM AFTERNOON/S MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DRY WEATHER DOMINATES...BUT MAY SEE A BRIEF SPOT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SOMETIME TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT... BUT A WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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RATHER QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CLOSE TO OUR REGION. THE PROBLEM OF THE NIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE STRATUS TO RETURN AS ONSHORE WINDS REMAIN. THERE IS A DECENT CLEARING SPOT BETWEEN THE MARINE STRATUS...AND THE CLOSED- CELLULAR STRATOCUMULUS OVER LAND. STREAMLINE ANALYSIS PLACES ONLY SOUTHEAST MA...AND PERHAPS SOME OF RI...AT RISK FOR THESE CLOUDS TO RETURN. DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST COME CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT OF FROST AT BAY FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. QUITE A BIT OF DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT. CONTINUE TO NOT HAVE MUCH FAITH IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNIGHT. IT DOES BEAR WATCHING THOUGH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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MID LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY INCREASES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINE THIS INCREASED SUNSHINE WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...AND WE WILL SEE A GENERAL WARMING TREND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTS WILL BE TRICKY...AS SEABREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL KEEP THOSE AREAS COOLER...AND PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY GREATER RISK FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY. BESIDES THE WEAK LIFT...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THE MAIN LIMITATION WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...BUT DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN IT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * MILD TO WARM AFTERNOON/S MUCH OF NEXT WEEK * COOLER AFTERNOON/S ON THE COAST AT TIMES WITH SEA BREEZES * SPOT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSS. SUN AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MA * BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SOMETIME TUE AND/OR TUE NIGHT DETAILS... SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL ALLOW FOR A MILD WESTERLY FLOW OF MID LEVEL AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. HIGHS AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE 70S. MAY EVEN SEE TEMPS BRIEFLY APPROACH 70 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN MA COAST DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SEA BREEZE...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF AFTERNOON TEMPS FALL BELOW 60 WITHIN A MILE OR SO OF THE COAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. AS FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY...DRY WEATHER DOMINATES. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE/COLD POOL ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAINLY IN NORTHERN MA. NOT SURE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT CAPE VALUES APPROACH 500 J/KG. 500 MB TEMPS BELOW -20C SO A FEW PEA HAIL REPORTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IF ANYTHING IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. MONDAY... MIGHT BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK WITH 850 TEMPS EXCEEDING +10C. GOOD MIXING ON SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S WITH EVEN SOME LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS SOUTHEAST OF A BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE LINE...BUT STILL A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES. TUESDAY... A COLD FRONT WILL WORK INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOMETIME TUE INTO TUE NIGHT. TIMING HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THIS IS STILL 4 DAYS INTO THE FUTURE. STILL A GOOD SHOT AT HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 70S TO EVEN NEAR 80 WITH WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING...WILL PROBABLY SEE A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SOMETIME TUE AND/OR TUE NIGHT. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE RISK OF THUNDER DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN ITS MARGINAL AND 4 DAYS OUT OPTED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO BE JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED MILD AFTERNOON/S WED THROUGH FRI WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO PERHAPS NEAR 80...INLAND FROM THE COAST AT TIMES. WEAK GRADIENT MAY RESULT IN COOLING SEA BREEZES AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL HAVE TO ESPECIALLY WATCH FRI FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE PENETRATION OR EVEN BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT IF THAT PANS OUT THERE MIGHT BE A LARGE TEMP DIFFERENTIAL FRI FROM THE CT RIVER VALLEY TO THE EASTERN MA COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVER THIS TIME...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SPOT SHOWERS BY FRIDAY IF A FRONT WORKS SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME E COASTAL LOCATIONS DIP BACK TO MVFR/IFR UNDER LOW CIGS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE. MOST LIKELY AREAS WOULD BE SOUTH OF I-90. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR NORTH OF THE PIKE. SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR AFTER ANY LOWER CIGS/DRIZZLE DIMINISHES. WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SE. SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF MVFR CIGS. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING MAINLY IN NORTHERN MA. LOW RISK OF EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR TO EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN A PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SOMETIME TUE AND/OR TUE NIGHT. WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT-TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... CONCERN TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A MIX OF FOG AND DRIZZLE RESULTING IN SOME VISIBILITY ISSUES. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THESE LOWER VISIBILITIES OCCUR...THEY WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO KEEP WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MOST OF THE TIME. HOWEVER...LONG SOUTHWEST FETCH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SCA SEAS MON NIGHT INTO TUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER-WATERS. MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING INTO THE LOWER 20 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE...RESULTING IN CHOPPY NEAR SHORE SEAS. FINALLY...LOW RISK OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST WATERS SUN AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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THE BIGGEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IS FOR MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT WITH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO PERHAPS 25 MPH. APPEARS JUST BELOW CRITERIA FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SINCE ITS BEEN SO DRY.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/FRANK NEAR TERM...BELK SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...FRANK AVIATION...BELK/FRANK MARINE...BELK/FRANK FIRE WEATHER...FRANK

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