Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 061816 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 216 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2015 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY WEATHER WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR WET WEATHER AND LOWER TEMPERATURES MAY FINALLY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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215 PM UPDATE... LIGHT/VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS IN PLACE. AS EXPECTED...SEA BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG MOST OF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. TWEAKED NEAR-TERM CONDITIONS TO REFLECT THE OBSERVED TRENDS. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO A GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. THAT SAID..STILL EXPECTING SEASONABLE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE... EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO RISE RATHER QUICKLY. A MORE MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP. IT IS MARGINAL IF THESE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY PRECLUDE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. ODDS ARE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. THINKING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WIN OUT BY LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 80 DEGREES EVEN AT THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MARINE STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE THE AVAILABILITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THIS JUNCTURE...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SOCK IN THE SOUTH COAST. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WHICH WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGHLIGHTS... * SW FLOW WILL BRING MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST AREAS * LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EACH OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH ONSHORE WINDS * INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DISCUSSION AND MODEL PREFERENCES... CONTINUED H5 LONG WAVE BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WITH EASTERN U.S. RIDGING AND BLOCKING CUTOFF LOW PRES/TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. MAY START TO SEE PATTERN BREAKING DOWN...THOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOWERED CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FRI THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS SLOWLY E...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW. MILD TO WARM TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS DEWPTS SLOWLY BUT STEADILY RISE WITH THE DEEP ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPS ALONG THE S COAST WILL BE COOLER WITH THE ONSHORE WINDS AS WELL. WILL ALSO SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG EACH LATE NIGHT TO MID MORNING PERIOD ALONG THE COAST AND...AS DEWPTS INCREASE...ACROSS SUSCEPTIBLE INLAND AREAS BY THIS WEEKEND. MAY START TO SEE A VERY SLOW MOVING FRONT OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRING A FEW SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS N MA AROUND THE ROUTE 2 AREA. SOME MORE INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS TO WORK IN...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO BUT TOUGH TO DETERMINE PLACEMENT SO LEFT OUT MENTION FOR NOW. NOTING THE 00Z GFS OP RUN TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND THEREFORE MOVING THE FRONT FASTER TOWARD THE REGION THAN THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID ATLC/SE U.S. COAST THAT MAY TAKE ON SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ALL OP MODELS APPEAR TO STALL THIS FEATURE...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE AND SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWING PROGRESSION OF THE CUTOFF LOW OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRES/COLD FRONT THAT TRIES TO PUSH THE RIDGE AND COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH BETTER SHOT FOR CONVECTION BUT AGAIN TIMING IS THE ISSUE. NOTED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY TEND TO TRAIN ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES AS MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS FORECASTER...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH AT THIS POINT. RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INTO THIS WEEKEND... THEN TRANSITIONED TO A BLEND OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM LATE SUNDAY ONWARD WHICH APPEARED TO GIVE BETTER RESOLUTION OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AS SLOW MOVING FRONT STARTS TO SAG TOWARD THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZES DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LOCAL SEA BREEZES DEVELOP AGAIN TOWARD MIDDAY THURSDAY. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING. MODERATE PROBABILITY A SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE REDEVELOPS MID MORNING THURSDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR. EXPECT S-SW WINDS. MAY SEE PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAINLY ALONG THE S/SE SHORELINE TERMINALS DURING OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING PERIODS EACH DAY. INCREASING CHANCES FOR -SHRA SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 1 TO 3 FEET WITH GOOD VISIBILITY. OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. S-SW WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KT AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED EACH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...IF NOT INTO SUNDAY. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WORK WEEK FOR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES...WE MAY HAVE TO BE MORE CONCERNED THIS WEEKEND IF IT REMAINS DRY.
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&& .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT NEAR TERM...BELK SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...EVT AVIATION...BELK/EVT MARINE...BELK/EVT FIRE WEATHER...STAFF

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