Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 262332 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 732 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE AREA DURING MIDWEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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715 PM UPDATE... AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG EAST COASTAL LOCALES EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT STILL HAD A GOOD 20 DEGREE TEMEPRATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD AS OF 7 PM SO NOT MUCH RAIN WOULD MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. OTHERWISE OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT... INSULATING US AND KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT..UPPER LOW MOVES EVEN FARTHER TO THE WEST...RESIDING JUST EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THE DAY THEN A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. DESPITE A WARMER START TO THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN STAY IN THE 50S WITH COOL NORTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES. THEN WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY * SUNSHINE AND MILD ON WEDNESDAY * DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY * IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND DETAILS... TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. CENTER OF CLOSED LOW MOVES A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE DURING TUESDAY...WITH OVERALL DECREASING MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA. THE LINGERING COLD POOL ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN EASTERN MA AND RI. OTHERWISE EXPECTING SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH LIGHT FLOW SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EAST AND SOUTH SHORELINES. WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL ALLOW SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO MAKE A BRIEF VISIT TO OUR AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD SPRING DAY...WITH SOME DIURNAL STRATOCU. LOOKING AT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...POTENTIALLY AROUND 70 IN THE LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY SPRINGFIELD TO HARTFORD AREAS. WITH ANTICIPATED LIGHT SURFACE FLOW...SEABREEZE IS EXPECTED TO KICK IN AND WILL KNOCK TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO...OR KEEP TEMPS IN...THE 50S NEARSHORE. THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. INITIALLY EXPECTING THURSDAY DAYTIME TO BE MAINLY DRY...BUT UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF OUR AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BE PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...ALLOWING FOR A SURFACE LOW TO EMERGE OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES ON WED...AND TRACK ACROSS THE CAROLINA COASTLINE DURING THU. THE BIG QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS WHERE THIS LOW TRACKS AFTERWARDS. 12Z GFS TAKES THE LOW CENTER OVER 40N/70W DURING THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN TO OUR AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF TAKE THE LOW OUT TO SEA...GIVING OUR AREA SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST. WITH THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL BE FOLLOWING HPC GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS BOX FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THU BUT INCREASING CLOUDS...AND CHANCE POPS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE ON THU BUT THEN BELOW NORMAL DURING FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. OUTCOME FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF DEEP CUTOFF LOW/SURFACE LOW TRACK. FOR SAT MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE...BUT FOR GFS IT MAY BE JUST CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. THEN MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WHERE A SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO OUR AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT NOT A WASHOUT WITH IT BEING MORE PROBABLE THAT MUCH OF THE DAY IS DRY. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. ALONG THE COASTLINE...LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT NW THIS EVENING. MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND DIRECTION THIS EVENING...LIGHT VARIABLE/ONSHORE WIND EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT NW. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT PROBABLE ON WED...WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DURING THU. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR IN SCT SHOWERS. CIGS/VSBYS COULD BE LOWER DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
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&& .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED. VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS START TO CREEP UP AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO THE WATERS. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED TUESDAY THAT SCA CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING TUESDAY...BUT SCA CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOME OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. DURING THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM MAKES IT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. IF IT STAYS WELL OFFSHORE...SWELLS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF ROUGH SEAS TO OUR COASTAL WATERS. A CLOSER APPROACH WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 TO 50 PERCENT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RLG/NMB NEAR TERM...RLG/NMB SHORT TERM...RLG LONG TERM...NMB AVIATION...RLG/NMB MARINE...RLG/NMB

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