Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 240838 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 438 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... STARTING TO LOSE CONFIDENCE IN THE FREEZE WARNING ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND NORTHWEST RI. LOTS OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 3.9 MICRON AND 11.7 MICRON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A RATHER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN MA...JUST NORTH OF THE CT BORDER. AS SUCH...IT IS STILL CONCEIVABLE FOR A RAPID DROP TOWARD THE FREEZING MARK JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. WILL LEAVE THE WARNING INTACT FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE FOR TODAY...WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THOSE WE SAW YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT THE COLD POOL AND CLOUD MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR NEW ENGLAND. SO WE MAY NOT CLEAR COMPLETELY...BUT PROBABLY FEWER CLOUDS THAN TONIGHT FOR A TIME. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR TONIGHT...AS CLEARER SKIES COULD LEAD TO MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS RETURN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CYCLES BACK TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK * SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK * LOW CONFIDENCE ON COASTAL SYSTEM THURS/FRIDAY. OVERVIEW... DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST OFFSHORE NOVA SCOTIA ON SAT BUT THEN BECOMES NOTABLY ELONGATED BY SUN AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE 00Z GEM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z GFS/00Z NAM/00Z UKMET AND 00Z ECMWF ARE ALL BETTER CLUSTERED WITH DEPTH AND TIMING THROUGH SUNDAY. BY NEXT WEEK APPEARS UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE AS BLOCKING PATTERN PERSIST...SUPPORTED BY -NAO/-AO/+PNA. UPPER LEVEL LOW AND CONTINUED COLD POOL WILL KEEP ON SPINNING OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND BEGIN TO EXIT LATE TUESDAY. STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MIGRATION OF THE DESERT CUTOFF LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ITS POTENTIAL WRAP UP INTO ANOTHER CLOSED LOW FOR NEW ENGLAND. A KEY COMPONENT OF THE SYSTEM`S INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE INCORPORATION OF SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND WHERE THIS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL PHASE WITH THE CUTOFF SYSTEM. CURRENTLY THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SOUTHERN PLAIN WAVE FASTER THAN THE EC WHICH IS MORE AMPLIFIED. THE EC/S NORTHERN STREAM IS FARTHER EASTWARD THAN THE GFS...IN WHICH THE EC SEEMS TO PULL A COASTAL LOW CLOSER TO THE REGION BY THUS/FRI. REGARDLESS APPEARS THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. FELT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BEST FOR THE WORK WEEK. DETAILS... * SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG CUTOFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER CONUS WILL BUILD PUSHING THE BULK OF THE ENERGY OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW MIGRATES BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS MAY REACH 60F AS COLD POOL IS STILL OFFSHORE. * MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE INCREASING THE CHANCES OF PRECIP AS 2 POTENT SHORTWAVES MORE THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE NORTH. COLD POOL ALOFT SEEMS TO SIT OVER THE REGION AS WELL. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE HIGHER THAN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER AND SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY. INCREASED POPS ESP ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE WHERE FORCING COULD OCCUR IF SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY THANKS TO THE STRONG COLD POOL OVER THE REGION. * WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE CUT-OFF LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. CURRENTLY BELIEVE WED IS A TRANSITION DAY WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BUT KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WATCHING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND EC HAVE SHOWN THE COASTAL LOW THIS TIME AROUND...SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT IT WILL OCCUR. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER OFFSHORE AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE EC...REGARDLESS WET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. MORE SPOTTY MVFR IN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST EACH DAY. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... TODAY...HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT. A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY GUST UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST OUTER WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT MET. THOUGHT IT BEST TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES GOING CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...RATHER THAN TAKING THEM DOWN...ONLY TO HAVE TO HOIST THEM AGAIN LATER. OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THOUGH TUESDAY... HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIT OR MISS SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WIND AND SEAS TO REMAINS BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY. POTENT COLD POOL WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH CREATING STRONG CAA AN INCREASE WINDS/SEAS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SCA MAY BE NEEDED. && .HYDROLOGY... THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEAR MIDDLE HADDAM IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE ITS FLOOD STAGE ONE LAST TIME WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. FURTHER HIGH TIDE CRESTS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CTZ002>004. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...NONE. RI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR RIZ001-003. FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ235- 237. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250- 254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...BELK SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN HYDROLOGY...BELK

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