Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000 FXUS61 KBOX 260813 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 413 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015 .SYNOPSIS... UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS WARMING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 254 AM UPDATE... AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...CLOUDS WERE PLAYING A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF NIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OF AS MUCH AS THEY MIGHT HAVE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. FARTHER SOUTH...A FROST ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN CT...AND PORTIONS OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. THESE AREAS RECENTLY CLEARED...BUT IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. 06Z MESONET TEMPERATURES SHOWED MANY AREAS WITHIN THE FROST ADVISORY AREA JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL RANGE WHERE FROST WOULD DEVELOP. THE EXPECTATION IS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY AND FROST WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE MARITIMES THE PAST DAY OR SO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO OUR REGION TODAY. THUS WE WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR DIURNAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. SKIES SHOULD START OFF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THEN CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN...THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE PEEKS THROUGH THE CLOUDS...COULD SEE TEMPS NEAR 60 THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND IN PARTS OF RI AND SOUTHEASTERN MA. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN SHOWERS...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN EITHER OF THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. MONDAY...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES EVEN FURTHER WEST...AND INDUCES SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...BESIDES THE COLD POOL ALOFT...TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN MA...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST MA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THAT SAID...STILL NOT EXPECTING A WASHOUT MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST RISK FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGHLIGHTS... * UNSETTLED AND BELOW AVG TEMPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY * RELIEF ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS * DIGGING TROUGH RETURNS ON THURS/FRIDAY YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS * IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE WEEKEND OVERVIEW... CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW WILL BEGIN TO TO EJECT OFFSHORE BY TUES/WED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE REGION TO REBOUND BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS. HOWEVER WATCHING TWO SYSTEMS WHICH WILL PUT THE NORTHEAST BACK INTO A DEEP TROUGH BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE NORTHERN STREAM PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BUT THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z EC/UKMET THIS TIME AROUND. ONCE THE SYSTEMS DEVELOP THE EAST COAST TROUGH...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MOVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. APPEARS THAT THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z EC ENSEMBLES. BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENTS AS CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD. PNA IS FORECASTED TO GO MORE NEGATIVE WITH A +NAO DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SO PERHAPS SPRING WILL STAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS... TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN BUT START PULLING OFFSHORE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. COLD POOL IS STILL LINGERING ESP ACROSS THE MASS EAST COAST. AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NEAR OR BELOW AVG TEMPS WILL CONTINUE. * WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL GIVE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND A BREAK IN PRECIP AND TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL....A FEW MODELS ARE EVEN SPITTING OUT 70S FOR HIGHS OUT WEST. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER THANKS TO CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BUT WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOW. * THURSDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. EVERYTHING IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM WAVES BEHAVES. REGARDLESS APPEARS DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP PUTTING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BACK BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS. THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A COASTAL LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS AND PUSH NORTHWARDS. THE GFS BRING THE COASTAL LOW CLOSEST TO THE REGION WHILE THE EC STILL KEEPS IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BENCHMARK. TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC WHICH HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. BELIEVE THURS AND FRI WILL BE MORE HIT OF MISS SHOWERS AND CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC POPS ALONG THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR COASTAL SYSTEM. * THE WEEKEND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY NEED TO WATCH QUICK MOVING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH COULD GIVE SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL HOPING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. SEA BREEZES EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MA. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS. TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SPOTTY SHOWERS. MONDAY...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. SEA BREEZE EXPECTED... BUT ONSET TIMING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO. KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL TAF. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED SHOWERS. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS. THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCT SHOWERS. && .MARINE... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS... LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT. HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN MORE NORTHERLY MONDAY. OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE ENOUGH NORTHERLY GRADIENT ANTICIPATED MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MIGHT BE MET...ESPECIALLY COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST. MAY TAKE UNTIL TUE EVENING BEFORE SEAS SUBSIDE BACK BELOW 5 FEET. OFFSHORE LOW MAY BRING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS...TO THE OUTER SOUTH COASTAL WATERS LATE THU OR THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND EVEN UNDERCUT WNA WAVE GUIDANCE BY 40 PERCENT. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ002>004. MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ017-018. RI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR RIZ001-003. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN NEAR TERM...BELK/THOMPSON SHORT TERM...BELK LONG TERM...DUNTEN AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN

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