Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 261949
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...DRYLINE HAS NOT BEEN
ABLE TO YET REACH SOUTH TEXAS...SO THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FOR THE REGION. MORNING SOUNDING SHOWED A REALLY STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION STILL IN PLACE...SO ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT IS
MINIMAL TO NIL THE REST OF THE DAY. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS OF 15 TO 20MPH ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE LOWER VALLEY WITH WINDS OF 10 TO
15 FURTHER INLAND. CIGS WILL AGAIN LOWER TO AROUND 1000 FEET...BUT
WILL STAY MIXED ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW BREAKS TO REMAIN.

MONDAY THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA RIGHT AWAY IN THE
MORNING. A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL
NOT BE EXCESSIVELY LARGE OR STRONG. THE MAIN NOTICEABLE FEATURES
OF THE FRONT WILL BEE THE BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND THE REMOVAL OF
THE SMOKY HAZE THAT HAS BEEN IN THE REGION FOR THE PAST FEW
WEEKS...ESPECIALLY THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH A MUCH NICER DAY FOR THE START OF
THE WEEK.

MONDAY NIGHT THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A MOSTLY CLEAR
NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MORE COMFORTABLE
60S...ALLOWING EVERYONE TO GIVE THEIR A/C A BREAK.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...SOME DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY
INFILTRATE THE CWA PRIOR TO TUESDAY...SUCH THAT THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY TO DAWN TUESDAY WILL BE BEREFT OF
MUCH ACTUAL WEATHER EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTH
WEST. A MID LEVEL LOW OVER OKLAHOMA AND ON THE EAST UNDERBELLY OF A
BLDNG H5 RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL HOLD ON TO SOME DEEPER MOISTURE...
BUT THE DRY AIR INFLUX WILL PREVAIL AND GAIN THE UPPER HAND MOVING
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY WITH A PAUCITY OF CLOUDS.
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FILTERS
OVER THE AREA...BECOMING UNSETTLED FOR A DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SETUP ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOWNSTREAM AND THE REMAINS OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE
SHIFTED OVER WEST TEXAS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD AND THEN
OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF BY SATURDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.

HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OF
MONDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. THE TREND WILL
CONTINUE LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST...FIFTEEN DEGREES LOWER THAN TWO NIGHTS
PREVIOUSLY. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL TREND UP WEDNESDAY...
AND WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL AGAIN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ABOUT
THE TIME SOUTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP.

&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL REACH AROUND 15 KTS OFFSHORE...BRINGING SEAS UP TO AROUND 4
FEET. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH BETWEEN SUNRISE AND NOON...WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. THIS
INITIAL NORTHERLY SURGE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO INCREASE
WINDS TO ADVISORY LEVELS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BRIEFLY MONDAY
NIGHT AS NORTH WINDS BECOME LIGHT...ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX TO 3
FEET.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT RIGHT ABOUT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL SET UP 20 TO 25 KT NORTHWEST WINDS
FOR THE DAY...WITH OFFSHORE WAVE HEIGHTS REACHING 7 OR 8 FT BY AFTN
OR EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF WITH
WINDS HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DECREASE. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...DECREASING
TO LIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EVEN VEERING TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE BACKSIDE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  86  68  79 /  20  20  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          76  92  67  80 /  20  20  10  10
HARLINGEN            76  91  66  81 /  20  20  10  10
MCALLEN              77  91  67  82 /  20  20  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  90  64  81 /  20  20  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   75  80  70  76 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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