Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 012229 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
529 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...THE UPCOMING TAF PACKAGE WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TEMPO HAS BEEN ADDED FROM 0208 TO
0212 FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG FORMATION...AS AN ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST RESUMES. MODERATE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TOMORROW WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
RIGHT NOW...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD IS AIDING IN
DEVELOPING SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS TO OUR EAST BUT OVERALL LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS PRODUCING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 0S WITH TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO WORK TOWARDS THE MID 80S. MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS
PERSIST IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND SURFACE MOISTURE A LITTLE
LACKING TO GET MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG.

SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL NUDGE TO THE EAST JUST A BIT OVER
THE GULF DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH LEE TROUGHING INTENSIFYING
SLIGHTLY TO OUR WEST IN RESPONSE TO A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SOUTHEAST BREEZES...BUT OTHERWISE A WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST WITH HUMIDITY VALUES STAYING LOWER THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF FOG ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ADVECTING IN BETTER MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS AND OVERALL SURFACE MOISTURE MAY STILL BE
LACKING BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE MILD AND
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED. /68-JGG/

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...SUNDAY REMAINS A GOOD
WEATHER DAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BUT LACKING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO WARRANT ANY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO THAT IN THE SHORT TERM...IN THE MID 80S.

S/W TROUGH ENTERS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND HEADS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY THEN A STRONGER CLOSED LOW MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WHAT THIS MEANS IS
PERSISTENT TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS. WE LIE ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WHICH MEANS DIFFLUENCE WILL BE OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TAP FLOWING AND WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING IN ON THE
SUBTROPICAL JET...PWATS WILL INCREASE FROM 1.5 INCHES MONDAY TO
NEARLY 1.9 INCHES BY MID/LATE WEEK. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WORK
OVER INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...MUCH LIKE WHAT WE EXPERIENCED LAST
WEEK. BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE UPPER VALLEY AND RANCHLANDS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS OFTEN BECOMING
BREEZY IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. ENOUGH WIND TO
ATLEAST WARRANT AN ANCHORING OF LAWN FURNITURE/EQUIPMENT. WITH 35
KNOT LLJ SET UP EACH NIGHT AT 925MB IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO MIX THIS
DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONG WITH GRADIENT WINDS...20 TO 35 MPH WIND
SPEEDS DEFINITELY A POSSIBILITY ACCORDING TO BUFKIT DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER.

HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A SLOW
INCREASE TOWARD 90 OUT WEST BY FRIDAY.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS TODAY
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODERATE
WIND SPEEDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ADVISORIES NOT EXPECTED. STRONGER WINDS WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN SEA HEIGHTS BY TUESDAY APPROACHING 6 FEET.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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