Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 292355 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
655 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE BREEZY
NORTH WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING
FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRED. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM
EAST OF PADRE ISLAND THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING DUE TO ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT WED APR 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A 500 MB TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TX WILL SAG SOUTHWARDS AND WILL WEAKEN
STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 500 MB
RIDGING TO OUR WEST TO BUILD EAST THROUGH THURS AND THURS NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST ALSO
ALLOWING FOR THE COOL NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW TO SLACKEN WITH THE
SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. LATE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON A WEAK E-SE SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR THE WAA TO INCREASE AND FOR THE LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS TO
START REBOUNDING. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY ATMS...GOOD DIURNAL
HEATING EFFECTS AND THE RETURNING ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALLOW THE TEMPS TO WARM STEADILY OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV AND ECMWF TEMP GUIDANCE
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...TO PUT IT SIMPLY...FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE `CHAMBER OF COMMERCE` WEATHER DAYS.
FRIDAY WILL SEE A DEPARTING OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN TO THE WEEKEND AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SURFACE WINDS
BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH SO A SLOW WARMUP
WILL CONTINUE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND DEWPOINTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL.
THEREFORE...DEFINATELY TAKE PART IN THE `BEACH WEATHER` AS RIP
CURRENT RISK APPEARS TO BE LOW THIS WEEKEND.

ATTENTION TURNS TO AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MONDAY MOVING NORTHEAST INTO COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY. LEE TROUGHING
RAMPS UP THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW
EVENTUALLY FORMING AND DEEPENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BY
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGHING WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SIERRA
MADRES SO WINDS IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE AN UPTICK. AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
BREEZY WINDS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH BETTER
CHANCES NORTH OF THE REGION WHERE BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE LOCATED.
APPEARS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THE CAP TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE QUESTIONABLE DURING THE LATE
PERIOD.

MARINE...THE LATEST BUOY020 DATA SHOWS THAT THE MARINE CONDITIONS
FROM 20 TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE ARE HOLDING CLOSE TO SCA
LEVELS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS OFFSHORE TO
CONTINUE DROPPING EARLY THIS EVENING FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS A
FEW HOURS FROM NOW. AFTER EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT FAIRLY CALM
MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AS A WEAK PGF LINGERS THROUGH THURS
NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WHICH WILL SWING THE WINDS AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL HELP BUILD THE SEAS SLIGHTLY FROM 2 FEET TO 3 FEET.
OTHERWISE...NO REAL IMPACTS IN THE MARINE AREAS THIS PERIOD AND NO
CAUTION OR ADVISORIES NEEDED.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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