Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 021951
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
251 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST
AS WELL WHILE A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AND MOVES ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT.  AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS...WEST
TEXAS AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LLJ DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND LINGERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 20 TO 25
KTS AT 925MB.

TONIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW MORE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IF WINDS DROP LOW
ENOUGH...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HWY 281 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
RETURNED MOISTURE...INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
REESTABLISHED...LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE GONE AND REPLACED BY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR HIGHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF THE STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LEE TROUGHING AND THE MIXING DOWN OF
WINDS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA. A
FEW MORE CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PRECIP
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH 1000 TO 500MB LAYER RH REMAINING BELOW 70 PERCENT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS ARE A LITTLE MORE MOIST WITH THE 1000 TO 700MB LAYER RH
AT 70 TO 75 PERCENT. SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
THEIR UPWARDS TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...EARLY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AN OPEN WAVE MOVES INLAND FROM THE SOUTHERN CA COAST WITH SOME
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE RIPPLES ASIDE TO THE FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST INFLUX OF DEEP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE SIERRA
MADRE AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN OUR REGION...THE CLOUD COVER WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE 1000 TO 500RH SHOW VALUES OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT
AND HIGHER EVEN FURTHER WEST WHERE THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION MONDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS COULD SNEAK INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION NEAR ZAPATA...STARR AND JIM HOGG COUNTY. THE CLOUD DECK
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS MONDAY. INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY NE
AND E ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION PROVIDING A MORE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THE BETTER DYNAMIC STILL REMAINS FURTHER NORTH WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL DIVERNGENCE BUT CONVECTION WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ON THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM TO ENTER THE CWA. AREAS THAT WILL BE FAVOR BY THIS ACTIVITY
STILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MID WEST WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH
DIGS ALONG THE CA COAST WHICH WILL CREATE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST
OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE GRADIENT AS IT STRENGTHENS
SO WILL THE SE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
BUT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP MOISTURE WHICH WILL MAINLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND
COULD ENHANCE A ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND NEAR 90
DEGREES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES A CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT SIMILAR PATTERN AS THE PREVIOUS LOW PRESSURE. AS A RESULT
...INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA
MADRE AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT TO 2 TO 4 FEET
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTH BUT WILL STILL ENHANCE CONVECTION INLAND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
THE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY KEEPING A MODERATE SE FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SEAS WILL BUILD CLOSE TO 6
FEET LATE TUESDAY DUE TO THE LONG SE FETCH AND INCREASE IN WINDS. SCEC CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND BY THE END OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  81  71  82 /   0  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          70  82  71  84 /  10  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            68  84  70  84 /  10  20  10  20
MCALLEN              69  85  71  86 /  10  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      68  86  69  86 /  10  10  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   73  78  72  80 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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