Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 252321 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
621 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CIGS STARTING TO DROP A BIT IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS
PART OF A TREND THAT SHOULD PICK UP THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECTING A
WIDESPREAD DROP TO MVFR FOLLOWED BY A DROP TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK.
MIXING/DRY AIR WILL OPEN UP THE SKIES TO VFR THROUGH MID MORNING
AND THE AFTERNOON. /68-JGG/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA HAS BROUGHT NORTH WINDS TO ALL
OF THE KBRO AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING AREA
WIDE...WITH KBRO BEING CLEAR MOST OF THE DAY SO FAR. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RESPONDED...JUMPING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO 93 AT KBRO...WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 98 TO 103. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
SEA BREEZE IS STARTING TO PROGRESS INLAND...SO EASTERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN SOON FOR CAMERON COUNTY AND WILL HELP PUSH THE SFC TROUGH
BACK NORTH THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS SOME SFC FORCING
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...DYNAMICS ALOFT ARE GONE AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN US AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN
BEHIND IT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY STILL FORM ON THE MOUNTAINS
IN MEXICO SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT MAKING ANY PROGRESS
TO THE NORTHEAST WILL BE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT.

TONIGHT...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN AS THE WEAK SFC TROUGH
DISSIPATES AND IS PUSHED BACK NORTHWARD. LOW CLOUDS WILL
RETURN...WITH SOME HAZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. LOWS WILL STRUGGLE
TO FALL BELOW THE MID 70S DEW POINTS READINGS.

TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HAZY AND HUMID DAY WITH SKIES SLOWLY
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL SHOW THE WEST TEXAS DRYLINE
TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES...BUT WILL ONLY ARRIVE
BRIEFLY BEFORE SUNSET STOPS ITS PROGRESS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
INCREASE INTO THE LOW 90S. AREAS WEST OF THE DRYLINE WILL LIKELY SEE
TEMPS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S LATE AFTERNOON.

TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE FOR
THE REGION...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID 70S AGAIN.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MAY SEE SOME ONGOING
CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS NORTHWEST OF THE CWA ALONG
MERGED DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT...BUT DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL
MAKE IT HARD FOR MUCH OF IT TO CONTINUE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO DEVELOP A MCC THAT MOVES EAST TOWARD EAST
TX. LOCALLY... DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE PULLED IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL GET INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
FOR THE DAY...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

A MID LEVEL LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
OKLAHOMA EARLY IN THE WEEK...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH...
WITH A FRONT ARRIVING ON TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
GENERATE CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...BUT MOST WILL
BE PINNED SOUTH OF THE CWA AND OVER THE NEARBY GULF WITH THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST...THE MAIN INFLUENCE WILL BE A TOPPLING RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A STABLE REGIME ABOVE THE
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE AIR MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE COMBINATION
WILL RESULT IN FAIR WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH
A TRANSITION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SEAS HAVE RELAXED AFTER GETTING
AGITATED BY THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...SETTLING IN THE 2 TO 3
FOOT RANGE. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL NOT PROVOKE THE
SEAS MUCH OTHERWISE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS MONDAY MORNING
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH BY MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FROM UPSTREAM. THE NORTH WIND WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 20
KTS TUE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION TO LW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE
WIND WILL HOLD STEADY NEAR 20 KTS TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE AREA...WHILE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE GULF
BUILD CLOSE TO SEVEN FEET. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WED NIGHT AS
WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  74  86  76  87 /  20  20  10  20
BROWNSVILLE          74  93  77  90 /  20  20  10  20
HARLINGEN            74  93  77  91 /  20  20  10  20
MCALLEN              73  98  77  93 /  20  20  10  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      75 100  75  91 /  20  20  10  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  82  76  83 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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