Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 031132 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD DECK HAS NOT DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED...AS A
HIGHER CLOUD DECK HAS INSULATED THE LOWER LAYERS. CLOUD COVER WILL
THIN DURING THE DAY...BUT THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH WILL KEEP DAYTIME CU IN THE REGION. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOW CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...H5 RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN
ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH SWEEPS
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WINDS ALOFT WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST AND WSW...BRINGING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. AT THE
SFC...INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN NE GULF RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENING ACROSS KANSAS WILL BRING BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE
REGION...HELPING TO REINTRODUCE MORE SFC MOISTURE. MOISTURE
ALREADY STARTING TO RETURN...AS SEEN ON PW IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
INCREASED MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. PW VALUES WILL
REACH 1.5 INCHES BY DAWN MONDAY...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OUT
WEST.

LONG TERM.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY WITH NORTH AMERICA SPLIT FLOW. TWO
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE IN FROM THE PAC NW TRACKING INTO OR NEAR
THE SW DESERTS AND SLOWLY WORKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GENERAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WILL BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THIS FLOW
TO TRACK OVER THE SIERRA MADRE WEST OF THE CWA FIRING OFF DIURNAL
CONVECTION. QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST AND HOW MUCH OF THIS
CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH THE POPS AND HAS CONCENTRATED THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WPC GUIDANCE ALSO FAVORS THE
MOST QPF IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH THE LOWER VALLEY AND THE
COASTAL STRIP SEEING LITTLE TO NO RAIN DURING THE DAYS 3 TO 7
PERIOD. PREVIOUS AND LATEST FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND IN THIS
DIRECTION HOWEVER INDICATING A MORE DIURNAL...AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...TIMING FOR THE CONVECTION. NO FAVORABLE BOUNDARY IS SEEN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION SO NO FOCUS FOR ANYTHING MORE THEN 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS ON ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENING. PWATS
INCREASE OVER 1.8 INCHES SO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AS FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT CAPES HOWEVER THE
TYPICAL LOW LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE AS 85H TEMPS
WARM UP WITH THE W-SW FLOW. SPC MAINTAINS ANY THREAT WELL WEST OF
THE CWA WHICH VERIFIES THIS CONDITIONAL STABILITY.

OVERALL, LOOKING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEW POINTS RISE WITH A
PERSISTENT SE-S FLOW AS LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE TYPICAL DIURNAL BREEZY TO OCCASIONALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS TO COMMENCE AS MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE THE BIGGEST INCREASE WITH AVERAGES CLIMBING
BACK UPWARDS TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MAXIMUMS ALSO ON THE
INCREASE BUT NOT AS EXTREME WITH NEAR EARLY MAY NORMALS.

MARINE.../TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO BRING INCREASED SEAS...STARTING AROUND 3 FEET
TODAY AND 4 FEET TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS TODAY
AND TOMORROW.

 /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...MODERATE TO MARGINALLY STRONG
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF COMBINES WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW TO
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS LATER TUESDAY AND REMAINING MARGINALLY HIGH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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