Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 251137 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
637 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE RIGHT NOW WITH LIGHT WINDS
AT THE SURFACE...ALLOWING SOME LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. VFR WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY...AND THE INTRUSION OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CAUSE
WINDS TO BACK...ESPECIALLY AT AERODROME MFE. A RETURN TO MVFR IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN ALLOWING LIGHT FOG
FORMATION.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...KBRO DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE LOWER TEXAS
COAST GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...WITH VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLES ONSHORE.
PATCHY FOG IS ALSO DEVELOPING INLAND AND IS GENERALLY LIGHT...EXCEPT
FOR DENSE FOG CURRENTLY NOTED AT HBV.

TODAY...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY INTRUDES INTO THE BRO CWFA WHILE A
WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE NEIGHBORING STATES OF COAHUILA...
NUEVO LEON...AND TAMAULIPAS IN MEXICO. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
RESULT...AND EVEN WITH THE BRO CWFA NOT IN A GENERAL RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER...FELT COMFORTABLE HAVING
THE MENTION OF THEM IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PER WHAT HAS GONE ON
WITHIN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DURING THE PAST 48
HOURS. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WERE REALIZED AS
HIGHS ON FRIDAY...AND SIMILAR TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT...IF NOT
COOLED A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY CLOUDINESS OVERHEAD AND MOIST SOILS
FROM RECENT RAINS.

TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND 500 MB TROUGH
DISSIPATE AND PASS...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SOME
CONVECTION IN THE NEIGHBORING HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...AND SOME OF
THIS MAY SNEAK ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY SWINGS INTO THE BRO CWFA WITH
DRIER AIR ON IT/S HEELS. THE BOUNDARY MAY KICK OFF SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...AND VERY ISOLATED AT THAT. THE DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO
BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND WILL DEEPEND
BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. IT
CONTINUES ITS TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE E INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WHILE RIDGE OVERHEAD FLATTENS AND SHIFTS E INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR WRAP AROUND THE LOW WILL ENTER INTO N
MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS SETTING WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTS THE DEEP MOISTURE EASTWARD AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA ENHANCING THE CAP OVER THE AREA LOWERING THE
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATE MONDAY. THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IN THE MID VALLEY EASTWARD ALONG THE
COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MILDER...IN THE MID 80S. CLEARING AND
DRIER AIR MONDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S AND
70S. THE MAIN NORTHERLY WIND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INCREASING NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE CWA. THE GRADIENT IS
FAIRLY TIGHT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WITH IT LIGHTER WINDS RETURNS. STILL A DRY
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY LIMITING ANY
CONVECTION OVER S TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUES
AND WED NIGHT WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR EVEN COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE FLOW DIGS SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS. THE INTERACTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL VEER NORTH WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. STILL AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH NO POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEGIN TO WARM UP INTO THE
MID 80S.

NEXT WEEKEND...THE RIDGE BUILDS AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WITH AN ABUNDANT DRY AIR MASS IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...BUOY 42020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 19 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 23 KNOTS WITH SEAS SLIGHTLY BELOW
4.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 04 CDT/09 UTC. MODERATE WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW SEAS
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTH WINDS BEGIN TO PICK UP TUESDAY INCREASING TO SCA POTENTIAL
AND SEAS INCREASING TO 4 TO 6 FEET. THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INC IN WINDS AND SEAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO WEDNESDAY
AND SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
WEAKEN. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM UPSTREAM MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING...BECOMING
MODERATE AND THEN STRONG BY TUE AFTERNOON. A SCA CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE DURING THE DAY. WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD SEVEN FT TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT
SPREADS OVER THE AREA.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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